Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low invasion risk, with "No" shares at 89.5%, driven by China's lack of observable preparations for a large-scale amphibious assault on Taiwan by late 2026. Recent People's Liberation Army drills around Taiwan, including those following President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration, have remained calibrated shows of force rather than mobilization signals, per official briefings from Beijing and Taipei. U.S. commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act, bolstered by arms deliveries and AUKUS enhancements, strengthen deterrence amid China's economic slowdown and domestic priorities. No primary sources indicate shifted timelines from Xi Jinping's reunification rhetoric, aligning odds with expert base rates favoring status quo stability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Да
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Объем
$3,274Дата окончания
Sep 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$3,274Дата окончания
Sep 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low invasion risk, with "No" shares at 89.5%, driven by China's lack of observable preparations for a large-scale amphibious assault on Taiwan by late 2026. Recent People's Liberation Army drills around Taiwan, including those following President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration, have remained calibrated shows of force rather than mobilization signals, per official briefings from Beijing and Taipei. U.S. commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act, bolstered by arms deliveries and AUKUS enhancements, strengthen deterrence amid China's economic slowdown and domestic priorities. No primary sources indicate shifted timelines from Xi Jinping's reunification rhetoric, aligning odds with expert base rates favoring status quo stability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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