Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US-China military clash before 2027 at just 7.5% implied probability ("No" at 92.5%), driven by ongoing diplomatic stabilization and robust mutual deterrence despite persistent tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Key recent developments include the US and China's restoration of military-to-military communications in late 2024, highlighted by working-level talks in Tokyo in November, following the Biden-Xi summit framework from 2023. Frequent PLA exercises near Taiwan and US freedom of navigation operations have remained non-escalatory, with no direct confrontations amid economic interdependence and nuclear postures discouraging conflict. While a Taiwan Strait crisis or alliance commitments could alter dynamics, traders see high barriers to outright clash before 2027, including the incoming Trump administration's foreign policy pivot.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$49,716 Объем
$49,716 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$49,716 Объем
$49,716 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US-China military clash before 2027 at just 7.5% implied probability ("No" at 92.5%), driven by ongoing diplomatic stabilization and robust mutual deterrence despite persistent tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Key recent developments include the US and China's restoration of military-to-military communications in late 2024, highlighted by working-level talks in Tokyo in November, following the Biden-Xi summit framework from 2023. Frequent PLA exercises near Taiwan and US freedom of navigation operations have remained non-escalatory, with no direct confrontations amid economic interdependence and nuclear postures discouraging conflict. While a Taiwan Strait crisis or alliance commitments could alter dynamics, traders see high barriers to outright clash before 2027, including the incoming Trump administration's foreign policy pivot.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Объем
$49,716Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US-China military clash before 2027 at just 7.5% implied probability ("No" at 92.5%), driven by ongoing diplomatic stabilization and robust mutual deterrence despite persistent tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Key recent developments include the US and China's restoration of military-to-military communications in late 2024, highlighted by working-level talks in Tokyo in November, following the Biden-Xi summit framework from 2023. Frequent PLA exercises near Taiwan and US freedom of navigation operations have remained non-escalatory, with no direct confrontations amid economic interdependence and nuclear postures discouraging conflict. While a Taiwan Strait crisis or alliance commitments could alter dynamics, traders see high barriers to outright clash before 2027, including the incoming Trump administration's foreign policy pivot.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$49,716Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US-China military clash before 2027 at just 7.5% implied probability ("No" at 92.5%), driven by ongoing diplomatic stabilization and robust mutual deterrence despite persistent tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Key recent developments include the US and China's restoration of military-to-military communications in late 2024, highlighted by working-level talks in Tokyo in November, following the Biden-Xi summit framework from 2023. Frequent PLA exercises near Taiwan and US freedom of navigation operations have remained non-escalatory, with no direct confrontations amid economic interdependence and nuclear postures discouraging conflict. While a Taiwan Strait crisis or alliance commitments could alter dynamics, traders see high barriers to outright clash before 2027, including the incoming Trump administration's foreign policy pivot.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы