Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, driven primarily by sustained U.S. military deterrence, including recent arms sales approvals worth over $2 billion and commitments to Taiwan's defense under the Taiwan Relations Act. Beijing's large-scale PLA exercises around the Taiwan Strait, such as those in October 2024 simulating blockades, signal pressure but lack observable amphibious assault preparations amid China's economic slowdown and domestic priorities. Taiwan's bolstered defenses and Lai Ching-te's administration have not provoked escalation beyond rhetoric on reunification, with analysts noting high risks of U.S. intervention and global economic fallout tempering invasion likelihood before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
Да
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 72.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, driven primarily by sustained U.S. military deterrence, including recent arms sales approvals worth over $2 billion and commitments to Taiwan's defense under the Taiwan Relations Act. Beijing's large-scale PLA exercises around the Taiwan Strait, such as those in October 2024 simulating blockades, signal pressure but lack observable amphibious assault preparations amid China's economic slowdown and domestic priorities. Taiwan's bolstered defenses and Lai Ching-te's administration have not provoked escalation beyond rhetoric on reunification, with analysts noting high risks of U.S. intervention and global economic fallout tempering invasion likelihood before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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