China's Two Sessions in early March set the 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5-5%, the lowest since the early 1990s, reflecting trader consensus heavily favoring the 4.0-5.0% outcome at 72% amid persistent property sector drag—estimated to shave up to 2 percentage points off growth—and softening domestic demand. Beijing announced supportive fiscal measures, including a 4% budget deficit, higher pensions, consumer loan easing, and property stabilization via lower mortgage rates, aiming to boost consumption while exports face US tariff risks. Q4 2025 growth hit a three-year low but met the prior 5% target; early 2026 indicators suggest a steady start, with Q1 data due mid-April potentially shifting odds further. International forecasts like IMF's 4.5% and Goldman Sachs' 4.8% reinforce the moderate trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено4,0–5,0% 72%
5,0–6,0% 25.9%
6,0–7,0% 2.4%
1,0–2,0% 1.2%
$195,003 Объем
$195,003 Объем
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
1%
2,0–3,0%
1%
3,0–4,0%
1%
4,0–5,0%
72%
5,0–6,0%
26%
6,0–7,0%
2%
7,0–8,0%
1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
<1%
4,0–5,0% 72%
5,0–6,0% 25.9%
6,0–7,0% 2.4%
1,0–2,0% 1.2%
$195,003 Объем
$195,003 Объем
Jan 31, 2026
<1,0%
$16,607 Объем
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$26,132 Объем
1%
2,0–3,0%
$5,311 Объем
1%
3,0–4,0%
$6,064 Объем
1%
4,0–5,0%
$10,620 Объем
72%
5,0–6,0%
$10,950 Объем
26%
6,0–7,0%
$17,883 Объем
2%
7,0–8,0%
$28,077 Объем
1%
8,0–9,0%
$5,608 Объем
1%
9,0%+
$67,752 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's Two Sessions in early March set the 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5-5%, the lowest since the early 1990s, reflecting trader consensus heavily favoring the 4.0-5.0% outcome at 72% amid persistent property sector drag—estimated to shave up to 2 percentage points off growth—and softening domestic demand. Beijing announced supportive fiscal measures, including a 4% budget deficit, higher pensions, consumer loan easing, and property stabilization via lower mortgage rates, aiming to boost consumption while exports face US tariff risks. Q4 2025 growth hit a three-year low but met the prior 5% target; early 2026 indicators suggest a steady start, with Q1 data due mid-April potentially shifting odds further. International forecasts like IMF's 4.5% and Goldman Sachs' 4.8% reinforce the moderate trajectory.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Объем
$195,003Дата окончания
Jan 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's Two Sessions in early March set the 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5-5%, the lowest since the early 1990s, reflecting trader consensus heavily favoring the 4.0-5.0% outcome at 72% amid persistent property sector drag—estimated to shave up to 2 percentage points off growth—and softening domestic demand. Beijing announced supportive fiscal measures, including a 4% budget deficit, higher pensions, consumer loan easing, and property stabilization via lower mortgage rates, aiming to boost consumption while exports face US tariff risks. Q4 2025 growth hit a three-year low but met the prior 5% target; early 2026 indicators suggest a steady start, with Q1 data due mid-April potentially shifting odds further. International forecasts like IMF's 4.5% and Goldman Sachs' 4.8% reinforce the moderate trajectory.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$195,003Дата окончания
Jan 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's Two Sessions in early March set the 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5-5%, the lowest since the early 1990s, reflecting trader consensus heavily favoring the 4.0-5.0% outcome at 72% amid persistent property sector drag—estimated to shave up to 2 percentage points off growth—and softening domestic demand. Beijing announced supportive fiscal measures, including a 4% budget deficit, higher pensions, consumer loan easing, and property stabilization via lower mortgage rates, aiming to boost consumption while exports face US tariff risks. Q4 2025 growth hit a three-year low but met the prior 5% target; early 2026 indicators suggest a steady start, with Q1 data due mid-April potentially shifting odds further. International forecasts like IMF's 4.5% and Goldman Sachs' 4.8% reinforce the moderate trajectory.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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