Polymarket traders price a tight race between ≤0.0% growth (28.6% implied probability) and 0.1-0.3% (27.5%) for Germany's Q1 2026 GDP, reflecting deep uncertainty over the economy's fragile recovery amid persistent headwinds. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expanded just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter—beating low expectations but underscoring annual contraction of 0.2%—while November industrial production fell 1.6% and manufacturing PMI remains below 45, signaling ongoing contraction. Bundesbank's latest projections show 2025 growth at a meager 0.3% before accelerating to 1.3% in 2026, yet traders discount this on export weakness to China, high energy costs, and fiscal drag from the 2025 budget. Key differentiators include ECB rate cuts (now at 3% deposit rate) potentially lifting domestic demand versus geopolitical risks like U.S. tariffs; watch January 2025 PMI and Q4 GDP flash for sentiment shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено≤0,0% 28.7%
0,1–0,3% 28%
0,4-0,6% 19%
1,3%+ 10.3%
$15,055 Объем
$15,055 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
≤0,0%
29%
0,1–0,3%
28%
0,4-0,6%
19%
0,7-0,9%
8%
1,0-1,2%
3%
1,3%+
10%
≤0,0% 28.7%
0,1–0,3% 28%
0,4-0,6% 19%
1,3%+ 10.3%
$15,055 Объем
$15,055 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
≤0,0%
$0 Объем
29%
0,1–0,3%
$1,356 Объем
28%
0,4-0,6%
$13,699 Объем
19%
0,7-0,9%
$0 Объем
8%
1,0-1,2%
$0 Объем
3%
1,3%+
$0 Объем
10%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a tight race between ≤0.0% growth (28.6% implied probability) and 0.1-0.3% (27.5%) for Germany's Q1 2026 GDP, reflecting deep uncertainty over the economy's fragile recovery amid persistent headwinds. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expanded just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter—beating low expectations but underscoring annual contraction of 0.2%—while November industrial production fell 1.6% and manufacturing PMI remains below 45, signaling ongoing contraction. Bundesbank's latest projections show 2025 growth at a meager 0.3% before accelerating to 1.3% in 2026, yet traders discount this on export weakness to China, high energy costs, and fiscal drag from the 2025 budget. Key differentiators include ECB rate cuts (now at 3% deposit rate) potentially lifting domestic demand versus geopolitical risks like U.S. tariffs; watch January 2025 PMI and Q4 GDP flash for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Объем
$15,055Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a tight race between ≤0.0% growth (28.6% implied probability) and 0.1-0.3% (27.5%) for Germany's Q1 2026 GDP, reflecting deep uncertainty over the economy's fragile recovery amid persistent headwinds. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expanded just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter—beating low expectations but underscoring annual contraction of 0.2%—while November industrial production fell 1.6% and manufacturing PMI remains below 45, signaling ongoing contraction. Bundesbank's latest projections show 2025 growth at a meager 0.3% before accelerating to 1.3% in 2026, yet traders discount this on export weakness to China, high energy costs, and fiscal drag from the 2025 budget. Key differentiators include ECB rate cuts (now at 3% deposit rate) potentially lifting domestic demand versus geopolitical risks like U.S. tariffs; watch January 2025 PMI and Q4 GDP flash for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$15,055Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a tight race between ≤0.0% growth (28.6% implied probability) and 0.1-0.3% (27.5%) for Germany's Q1 2026 GDP, reflecting deep uncertainty over the economy's fragile recovery amid persistent headwinds. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expanded just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter—beating low expectations but underscoring annual contraction of 0.2%—while November industrial production fell 1.6% and manufacturing PMI remains below 45, signaling ongoing contraction. Bundesbank's latest projections show 2025 growth at a meager 0.3% before accelerating to 1.3% in 2026, yet traders discount this on export weakness to China, high energy costs, and fiscal drag from the 2025 budget. Key differentiators include ECB rate cuts (now at 3% deposit rate) potentially lifting domestic demand versus geopolitical risks like U.S. tariffs; watch January 2025 PMI and Q4 GDP flash for sentiment shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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