Polymarket traders price a near deadlock for Germany Q1 2026 GDP growth, with ≤0.0% at 28.5% implied probability edging out 0.1-0.3% at 27.5%, reflecting deep uncertainty over industrial rebound amid Eurozone manufacturing PMI stuck below 45 for months. Recent Bundesbank revisions slashed full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.8% from 1.2%, driven by Q3 2025's meager 0.1% q/q print, plunging exports to China, and faltering auto sector output despite ECB's 25 basis point deposit rate cut to 3.0% last week. Key swing factors include December Ifo index and Q4 fiscal stimulus passage; contraction odds prevail if PMI dips further, while modest positivity hinges on holiday export upticks or accelerated ECB easing path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено≤0,0% 28.6%
0,1–0,3% 28%
0,4-0,6% 19%
1,3%+ 10.3%
$13,699 Объем
$13,699 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
≤0,0%
29%
0,1–0,3%
28%
0,4-0,6%
19%
0,7-0,9%
8%
1,0-1,2%
3%
1,3%+
10%
≤0,0% 28.6%
0,1–0,3% 28%
0,4-0,6% 19%
1,3%+ 10.3%
$13,699 Объем
$13,699 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
≤0,0%
$0 Объем
29%
0,1–0,3%
$0 Объем
28%
0,4-0,6%
$13,699 Объем
19%
0,7-0,9%
$0 Объем
8%
1,0-1,2%
$0 Объем
3%
1,3%+
$0 Объем
10%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a near deadlock for Germany Q1 2026 GDP growth, with ≤0.0% at 28.5% implied probability edging out 0.1-0.3% at 27.5%, reflecting deep uncertainty over industrial rebound amid Eurozone manufacturing PMI stuck below 45 for months. Recent Bundesbank revisions slashed full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.8% from 1.2%, driven by Q3 2025's meager 0.1% q/q print, plunging exports to China, and faltering auto sector output despite ECB's 25 basis point deposit rate cut to 3.0% last week. Key swing factors include December Ifo index and Q4 fiscal stimulus passage; contraction odds prevail if PMI dips further, while modest positivity hinges on holiday export upticks or accelerated ECB easing path.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Объем
$13,699Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a near deadlock for Germany Q1 2026 GDP growth, with ≤0.0% at 28.5% implied probability edging out 0.1-0.3% at 27.5%, reflecting deep uncertainty over industrial rebound amid Eurozone manufacturing PMI stuck below 45 for months. Recent Bundesbank revisions slashed full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.8% from 1.2%, driven by Q3 2025's meager 0.1% q/q print, plunging exports to China, and faltering auto sector output despite ECB's 25 basis point deposit rate cut to 3.0% last week. Key swing factors include December Ifo index and Q4 fiscal stimulus passage; contraction odds prevail if PMI dips further, while modest positivity hinges on holiday export upticks or accelerated ECB easing path.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$13,699Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a near deadlock for Germany Q1 2026 GDP growth, with ≤0.0% at 28.5% implied probability edging out 0.1-0.3% at 27.5%, reflecting deep uncertainty over industrial rebound amid Eurozone manufacturing PMI stuck below 45 for months. Recent Bundesbank revisions slashed full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.8% from 1.2%, driven by Q3 2025's meager 0.1% q/q print, plunging exports to China, and faltering auto sector output despite ECB's 25 basis point deposit rate cut to 3.0% last week. Key swing factors include December Ifo index and Q4 fiscal stimulus passage; contraction odds prevail if PMI dips further, while modest positivity hinges on holiday export upticks or accelerated ECB easing path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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