Robust U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative annual GDP growth in 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 2.2% annualized rate, with Q3 nowcasts near 5%, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust business fixed investment in AI infrastructure and data centers, and productivity gains that have offset higher energy costs and elevated inflation near 3.4%. Federal Reserve projections center on 2.3% growth for the year, while private forecasts from the ABA and others range from 2.0–2.7%, reflecting a balanced labor market with unemployment around 4.1% and no recession signals in leading indicators. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a sharp AI-equity correction, major geopolitical escalation driving oil prices much higher, or unexpected policy shocks that derail the expansion.