Elevated June quarter CPI at 4.1%—well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target and driven by transport and energy prices—remains the dominant catalyst anchoring the 87.5% market-implied probability of an OCR increase at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. The July 25-basis-point hike to 2.50%, the first in three years, reinforced the committee’s hawkish tilt amid persistent inflation risks from the energy shock and firms’ pricing behavior. Recent RBNZ commentary highlights that further tightening may be required to anchor expectations, with incoming data on growth and core inflation likely to shape the pace. Trader consensus reflected in these odds prices in a data-dependent path rather than certainty, consistent with the bank’s forward guidance that additional hikes remain possible.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРешение Резервного банка Новой Зеландии в сентябре?
Решение Резервного банка Новой Зеландии в сентябре?
Увеличение 88%
Без изменений 13%
Снижение <1%
$21,508 Объем
$21,508 Объем
2 сент. 2026 г.
Увеличение
88%
Без изменений
13%
Снижение
<1%
Увеличение 88%
Без изменений 13%
Снижение <1%
$21,508 Объем
$21,508 Объем
2 сент. 2026 г.
Увеличение
$7,187 Объем
88%
Без изменений
$12,369 Объем
13%
Снижение
$1,952 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated June quarter CPI at 4.1%—well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target and driven by transport and energy prices—remains the dominant catalyst anchoring the 87.5% market-implied probability of an OCR increase at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. The July 25-basis-point hike to 2.50%, the first in three years, reinforced the committee’s hawkish tilt amid persistent inflation risks from the energy shock and firms’ pricing behavior. Recent RBNZ commentary highlights that further tightening may be required to anchor expectations, with incoming data on growth and core inflation likely to shape the pace. Trader consensus reflected in these odds prices in a data-dependent path rather than certainty, consistent with the bank’s forward guidance that additional hikes remain possible.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jul 10, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Объем
$21,508Дата окончания
2 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 10, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated June quarter CPI at 4.1%—well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target and driven by transport and energy prices—remains the dominant catalyst anchoring the 87.5% market-implied probability of an OCR increase at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. The July 25-basis-point hike to 2.50%, the first in three years, reinforced the committee’s hawkish tilt amid persistent inflation risks from the energy shock and firms’ pricing behavior. Recent RBNZ commentary highlights that further tightening may be required to anchor expectations, with incoming data on growth and core inflation likely to shape the pace. Trader consensus reflected in these odds prices in a data-dependent path rather than certainty, consistent with the bank’s forward guidance that additional hikes remain possible.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$21,508Дата окончания
2 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 10, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated June quarter CPI at 4.1%—well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target and driven by transport and energy prices—remains the dominant catalyst anchoring the 87.5% market-implied probability of an OCR increase at the September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. The July 25-basis-point hike to 2.50%, the first in three years, reinforced the committee’s hawkish tilt amid persistent inflation risks from the energy shock and firms’ pricing behavior. Recent RBNZ commentary highlights that further tightening may be required to anchor expectations, with incoming data on growth and core inflation likely to shape the pace. Trader consensus reflected in these odds prices in a data-dependent path rather than certainty, consistent with the bank’s forward guidance that additional hikes remain possible.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы