Recent U.S. economic data and forecasts underpin the near-even split between the 2.0–2.5% and >2.5% 2026 GDP growth brackets on Polymarket. Solid Q2 growth revised higher to 2.2% annualized, combined with strong Q3 nowcasts near 3% and robust business fixed investment in AI infrastructure and data centers, supports the elevated >2.5% odds. The FOMC’s September 2026 median projection of 2.3% Q4/Q4 growth, alongside private forecasts clustered around 2.1–2.7%, reflects offsetting pressures from sticky core PCE inflation near 3.0–3.4%, a balanced but softening labor market with unemployment at 4.2%, and restrictive monetary policy. Traders weigh these resilient domestic demand factors against risks from higher oil prices and potential policy tightening ahead of the December FOMC meeting.