Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87% implied probability that Jones Act domestic shipping requirements—mandating U.S.-built, owned, flagged, and crewed vessels for interstate waterborne cargo—will not be permanently removed by June 30, 2026, driven by the Trump administration's March 18 limited 60-day waiver amid Middle East conflict-induced oil supply disruptions. This temporary measure, expiring around May 17, eases short-term bottlenecks without statutory repeal, echoing historical crisis waivers (e.g., post-hurricanes) that routinely lapse absent legislative action. Bipartisan support from maritime unions, shipbuilders, and coastal-state lawmakers reinforces inertia, outweighing reform calls like Sen. Mike Lee's March 12 bill for targeted relief. Key catalysts include waiver expiration and potential congressional hearings, though traders see slim odds of full deregulation given entrenched national security and economic interests.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$47,622 Объем
$47,622 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$47,622 Объем
$47,622 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87% implied probability that Jones Act domestic shipping requirements—mandating U.S.-built, owned, flagged, and crewed vessels for interstate waterborne cargo—will not be permanently removed by June 30, 2026, driven by the Trump administration's March 18 limited 60-day waiver amid Middle East conflict-induced oil supply disruptions. This temporary measure, expiring around May 17, eases short-term bottlenecks without statutory repeal, echoing historical crisis waivers (e.g., post-hurricanes) that routinely lapse absent legislative action. Bipartisan support from maritime unions, shipbuilders, and coastal-state lawmakers reinforces inertia, outweighing reform calls like Sen. Mike Lee's March 12 bill for targeted relief. Key catalysts include waiver expiration and potential congressional hearings, though traders see slim odds of full deregulation given entrenched national security and economic interests.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Объем
$47,622Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87% implied probability that Jones Act domestic shipping requirements—mandating U.S.-built, owned, flagged, and crewed vessels for interstate waterborne cargo—will not be permanently removed by June 30, 2026, driven by the Trump administration's March 18 limited 60-day waiver amid Middle East conflict-induced oil supply disruptions. This temporary measure, expiring around May 17, eases short-term bottlenecks without statutory repeal, echoing historical crisis waivers (e.g., post-hurricanes) that routinely lapse absent legislative action. Bipartisan support from maritime unions, shipbuilders, and coastal-state lawmakers reinforces inertia, outweighing reform calls like Sen. Mike Lee's March 12 bill for targeted relief. Key catalysts include waiver expiration and potential congressional hearings, though traders see slim odds of full deregulation given entrenched national security and economic interests.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$47,622Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87% implied probability that Jones Act domestic shipping requirements—mandating U.S.-built, owned, flagged, and crewed vessels for interstate waterborne cargo—will not be permanently removed by June 30, 2026, driven by the Trump administration's March 18 limited 60-day waiver amid Middle East conflict-induced oil supply disruptions. This temporary measure, expiring around May 17, eases short-term bottlenecks without statutory repeal, echoing historical crisis waivers (e.g., post-hurricanes) that routinely lapse absent legislative action. Bipartisan support from maritime unions, shipbuilders, and coastal-state lawmakers reinforces inertia, outweighing reform calls like Sen. Mike Lee's March 12 bill for targeted relief. Key catalysts include waiver expiration and potential congressional hearings, though traders see slim odds of full deregulation given entrenched national security and economic interests.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы