The Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments this week on the constitutionality of President Trump's January 2025 executive order seeking to restrict birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants or temporary visa holders, interpreting the 14th Amendment's "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" clause narrowly. Lower courts issued nationwide injunctions blocking implementation, but a 6-3 SCOTUS ruling last June limited such broad judicial blocks, allowing partial enforcement via USCIS while merits litigation advanced. Traders' 78.5% implied probability for a strike-down reflects strong precedent from the 1898 Wong Kim Ark decision affirming jus soli citizenship, scholarly consensus that executive action cannot override constitutional text without congressional legislation, and signals in recent briefs emphasizing structural barriers to presidential reinterpretation, though a conservative majority leaves room for narrow upholding.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
$12,393 Объем
НОВОЕ
$12,393 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
$12,393 Объем
НОВОЕ
$12,393 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the merits of Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/) which directed that children born in the United States would not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if their parents were in the country unlawfully or on certain temporary visas.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments this week on the constitutionality of President Trump's January 2025 executive order seeking to restrict birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants or temporary visa holders, interpreting the 14th Amendment's "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" clause narrowly. Lower courts issued nationwide injunctions blocking implementation, but a 6-3 SCOTUS ruling last June limited such broad judicial blocks, allowing partial enforcement via USCIS while merits litigation advanced. Traders' 78.5% implied probability for a strike-down reflects strong precedent from the 1898 Wong Kim Ark decision affirming jus soli citizenship, scholarly consensus that executive action cannot override constitutional text without congressional legislation, and signals in recent briefs emphasizing structural barriers to presidential reinterpretation, though a conservative majority leaves room for narrow upholding.
The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the merits of Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/) which directed that children born in the United States would not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if their parents were in the country unlawfully or on certain temporary visas.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 2:54 PM ET
Объем
$12,393Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the merits of Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/) which directed that children born in the United States would not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if their parents were in the country unlawfully or on certain temporary visas.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments this week on the constitutionality of President Trump's January 2025 executive order seeking to restrict birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants or temporary visa holders, interpreting the 14th Amendment's "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" clause narrowly. Lower courts issued nationwide injunctions blocking implementation, but a 6-3 SCOTUS ruling last June limited such broad judicial blocks, allowing partial enforcement via USCIS while merits litigation advanced. Traders' 78.5% implied probability for a strike-down reflects strong precedent from the 1898 Wong Kim Ark decision affirming jus soli citizenship, scholarly consensus that executive action cannot override constitutional text without congressional legislation, and signals in recent briefs emphasizing structural barriers to presidential reinterpretation, though a conservative majority leaves room for narrow upholding.
The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the merits of Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/) which directed that children born in the United States would not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if their parents were in the country unlawfully or on certain temporary visas.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$12,393Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 2:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments this week on the constitutionality of President Trump's January 2025 executive order seeking to restrict birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants or temporary visa holders, interpreting the 14th Amendment's "subject to the jurisdiction thereof" clause narrowly. Lower courts issued nationwide injunctions blocking implementation, but a 6-3 SCOTUS ruling last June limited such broad judicial blocks, allowing partial enforcement via USCIS while merits litigation advanced. Traders' 78.5% implied probability for a strike-down reflects strong precedent from the 1898 Wong Kim Ark decision affirming jus soli citizenship, scholarly consensus that executive action cannot override constitutional text without congressional legislation, and signals in recent briefs emphasizing structural barriers to presidential reinterpretation, though a conservative majority leaves room for narrow upholding.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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