With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a narrow Tisza Party popular vote margin under 9% as the leading outcome at 39%, driven by conflicting late-March polls showing the opposition challenging Fidesz-KDNP closely. Independent pollsters like Medián (Tisza 58%-Fidesz 35% among decided voters) and 21 Kutatóközpont (16-point Tisza lead) indicate widening Tisza advantages, while government-aligned firms such as Nézőpont and XXI. Század report Fidesz edges of 5-9%, fueling bets on a tight race. Final campaign pushes, undecided voter turnout, and historical incumbency strength heighten uncertainty, pricing "Other" (likely Fidesz plurality) at 20.5% amid house effects and potential coalition dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоTisza <9% 39%
Other 21%
Tisza 15-18% 13%
Tisza 9-12% 12%
$10,279 Объем
$10,279 Объем
12 апр. 2026 г.
Tisza 18%+
10%
Tisza 15-18%
13%
Tisza 12-15%
10%
Tisza 9-12%
12%
Tisza <9%
39%
Other
21%
Tisza <9% 39%
Other 21%
Tisza 15-18% 13%
Tisza 9-12% 12%
$10,279 Объем
$10,279 Объем
12 апр. 2026 г.
Tisza 18%+
$761 Объем
10%
Tisza 15-18%
$332 Объем
13%
Tisza 12-15%
$184 Объем
10%
Tisza 9-12%
$1,428 Объем
12%
Tisza <9%
$2,779 Объем
39%
Other
$4,795 Объем
21%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a narrow Tisza Party popular vote margin under 9% as the leading outcome at 39%, driven by conflicting late-March polls showing the opposition challenging Fidesz-KDNP closely. Independent pollsters like Medián (Tisza 58%-Fidesz 35% among decided voters) and 21 Kutatóközpont (16-point Tisza lead) indicate widening Tisza advantages, while government-aligned firms such as Nézőpont and XXI. Század report Fidesz edges of 5-9%, fueling bets on a tight race. Final campaign pushes, undecided voter turnout, and historical incumbency strength heighten uncertainty, pricing "Other" (likely Fidesz plurality) at 20.5% amid house effects and potential coalition dynamics.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
Объем
$10,279Дата окончания
12 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a narrow Tisza Party popular vote margin under 9% as the leading outcome at 39%, driven by conflicting late-March polls showing the opposition challenging Fidesz-KDNP closely. Independent pollsters like Medián (Tisza 58%-Fidesz 35% among decided voters) and 21 Kutatóközpont (16-point Tisza lead) indicate widening Tisza advantages, while government-aligned firms such as Nézőpont and XXI. Század report Fidesz edges of 5-9%, fueling bets on a tight race. Final campaign pushes, undecided voter turnout, and historical incumbency strength heighten uncertainty, pricing "Other" (likely Fidesz plurality) at 20.5% amid house effects and potential coalition dynamics.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Объем
$10,279Дата окончания
12 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a narrow Tisza Party popular vote margin under 9% as the leading outcome at 39%, driven by conflicting late-March polls showing the opposition challenging Fidesz-KDNP closely. Independent pollsters like Medián (Tisza 58%-Fidesz 35% among decided voters) and 21 Kutatóközpont (16-point Tisza lead) indicate widening Tisza advantages, while government-aligned firms such as Nézőpont and XXI. Század report Fidesz edges of 5-9%, fueling bets on a tight race. Final campaign pushes, undecided voter turnout, and historical incumbency strength heighten uncertainty, pricing "Other" (likely Fidesz plurality) at 20.5% amid house effects and potential coalition dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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