With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus favors a Tisza popular vote victory by over 9 percentage points at 33.5% implied probability, driven by recent independent polls like Medián (March 17–20) showing Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a 23-point lead—and Republikon (March 23–26) indicating Tisza ahead 49–40% among voters. This widening gap follows rival mass rallies on March 15, where Tisza claimed 500,000 attendees signaling opposition momentum against Fidesz incumbency fatigue. Fidesz-aligned surveys like Nézőpont show narrower margins or slight leads, highlighting pollster discrepancies. Key differentiators include Péter Magyar's appeal as a Fidesz defector criticizing corruption and EU fund disputes, versus Viktor Orbán's nationalist base. Consolidation behind larger Tisza margins hinges on undecideds (15–20%), rural turnout favoring Fidesz, and final-week campaign intensity without major scandals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоТисза 9%+ 34%
Тиса 3-6% 19%
Тисза 6-9% 17%
Тиса 0-3% 10%
$1,151,520 Объем
$1,151,520 Объем
Apr 12, 2026
Тисза 9%+
34%
Тисза 6-9%
17%
Тиса 3-6%
19%
Тиса 0-3%
10%
Фидес-СКНДП 0-3%
9%
Фидес-КДНП 3-6%
7%
Фидес-КДНП 6-9%
4%
Фидес-КДНП 9%+
5%
Другое
<1%
Тисза 9%+ 34%
Тиса 3-6% 19%
Тисза 6-9% 17%
Тиса 0-3% 10%
$1,151,520 Объем
$1,151,520 Объем
Apr 12, 2026
Тисза 9%+
$58,170 Объем
34%
Тисза 6-9%
$12,725 Объем
17%
Тиса 3-6%
$36,618 Объем
19%
Тиса 0-3%
$20,770 Объем
10%
Фидес-СКНДП 0-3%
$47,029 Объем
9%
Фидес-КДНП 3-6%
$45,123 Объем
7%
Фидес-КДНП 6-9%
$434,674 Объем
4%
Фидес-КДНП 9%+
$483,190 Объем
5%
Другое
$13,222 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus favors a Tisza popular vote victory by over 9 percentage points at 33.5% implied probability, driven by recent independent polls like Medián (March 17–20) showing Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a 23-point lead—and Republikon (March 23–26) indicating Tisza ahead 49–40% among voters. This widening gap follows rival mass rallies on March 15, where Tisza claimed 500,000 attendees signaling opposition momentum against Fidesz incumbency fatigue. Fidesz-aligned surveys like Nézőpont show narrower margins or slight leads, highlighting pollster discrepancies. Key differentiators include Péter Magyar's appeal as a Fidesz defector criticizing corruption and EU fund disputes, versus Viktor Orbán's nationalist base. Consolidation behind larger Tisza margins hinges on undecideds (15–20%), rural turnout favoring Fidesz, and final-week campaign intensity without major scandals.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Открытие рынка: Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Объем
$1,151,520Дата окончания
Apr 12, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus favors a Tisza popular vote victory by over 9 percentage points at 33.5% implied probability, driven by recent independent polls like Medián (March 17–20) showing Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a 23-point lead—and Republikon (March 23–26) indicating Tisza ahead 49–40% among voters. This widening gap follows rival mass rallies on March 15, where Tisza claimed 500,000 attendees signaling opposition momentum against Fidesz incumbency fatigue. Fidesz-aligned surveys like Nézőpont show narrower margins or slight leads, highlighting pollster discrepancies. Key differentiators include Péter Magyar's appeal as a Fidesz defector criticizing corruption and EU fund disputes, versus Viktor Orbán's nationalist base. Consolidation behind larger Tisza margins hinges on undecideds (15–20%), rural turnout favoring Fidesz, and final-week campaign intensity without major scandals.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Объем
$1,151,520Дата окончания
Apr 12, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12, trader consensus favors a Tisza popular vote victory by over 9 percentage points at 33.5% implied probability, driven by recent independent polls like Medián (March 17–20) showing Tisza at 58% versus Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a 23-point lead—and Republikon (March 23–26) indicating Tisza ahead 49–40% among voters. This widening gap follows rival mass rallies on March 15, where Tisza claimed 500,000 attendees signaling opposition momentum against Fidesz incumbency fatigue. Fidesz-aligned surveys like Nézőpont show narrower margins or slight leads, highlighting pollster discrepancies. Key differentiators include Péter Magyar's appeal as a Fidesz defector criticizing corruption and EU fund disputes, versus Viktor Orbán's nationalist base. Consolidation behind larger Tisza margins hinges on undecideds (15–20%), rural turnout favoring Fidesz, and final-week campaign intensity without major scandals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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