With Hungary's parliamentary election 11 days away on April 12, trader consensus prices TISZA's chances of securing a constitutional majority (133 of 199 seats) at 29%, reflecting skepticism despite recent polls showing the party leading Fidesz among decided voters in opposition surveys like Medián's March 17-20 results (Tisza 58%, Fidesz 35%). Pro-government polls such as Závecz (March 24-28: Fidesz 51%, Tisza 38%) indicate narrower gaps or Fidesz leads, underscoring volatility. The mixed-member system—106 single-member districts favoring Fidesz's rural strongholds via gerrymandering and winner-take-all rules—converts modest vote shortfalls into major seat deficits for challengers, as seen in historical patterns. Escalating pre-election tensions, including mutual accusations of vote-buying, spyware, and foreign interference from Russia or Ukraine, plus Fidesz by-election wins, reinforce doubts about TISZA reaching supermajority thresholds for constitutional reforms.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
12 апр. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
12 апр. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's parliamentary election 11 days away on April 12, trader consensus prices TISZA's chances of securing a constitutional majority (133 of 199 seats) at 29%, reflecting skepticism despite recent polls showing the party leading Fidesz among decided voters in opposition surveys like Medián's March 17-20 results (Tisza 58%, Fidesz 35%). Pro-government polls such as Závecz (March 24-28: Fidesz 51%, Tisza 38%) indicate narrower gaps or Fidesz leads, underscoring volatility. The mixed-member system—106 single-member districts favoring Fidesz's rural strongholds via gerrymandering and winner-take-all rules—converts modest vote shortfalls into major seat deficits for challengers, as seen in historical patterns. Escalating pre-election tensions, including mutual accusations of vote-buying, spyware, and foreign interference from Russia or Ukraine, plus Fidesz by-election wins, reinforce doubts about TISZA reaching supermajority thresholds for constitutional reforms.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Объем
$338Дата окончания
12 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With Hungary's parliamentary election 11 days away on April 12, trader consensus prices TISZA's chances of securing a constitutional majority (133 of 199 seats) at 29%, reflecting skepticism despite recent polls showing the party leading Fidesz among decided voters in opposition surveys like Medián's March 17-20 results (Tisza 58%, Fidesz 35%). Pro-government polls such as Závecz (March 24-28: Fidesz 51%, Tisza 38%) indicate narrower gaps or Fidesz leads, underscoring volatility. The mixed-member system—106 single-member districts favoring Fidesz's rural strongholds via gerrymandering and winner-take-all rules—converts modest vote shortfalls into major seat deficits for challengers, as seen in historical patterns. Escalating pre-election tensions, including mutual accusations of vote-buying, spyware, and foreign interference from Russia or Ukraine, plus Fidesz by-election wins, reinforce doubts about TISZA reaching supermajority thresholds for constitutional reforms.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Объем
$338Дата окончания
12 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With Hungary's parliamentary election 11 days away on April 12, trader consensus prices TISZA's chances of securing a constitutional majority (133 of 199 seats) at 29%, reflecting skepticism despite recent polls showing the party leading Fidesz among decided voters in opposition surveys like Medián's March 17-20 results (Tisza 58%, Fidesz 35%). Pro-government polls such as Závecz (March 24-28: Fidesz 51%, Tisza 38%) indicate narrower gaps or Fidesz leads, underscoring volatility. The mixed-member system—106 single-member districts favoring Fidesz's rural strongholds via gerrymandering and winner-take-all rules—converts modest vote shortfalls into major seat deficits for challengers, as seen in historical patterns. Escalating pre-election tensions, including mutual accusations of vote-buying, spyware, and foreign interference from Russia or Ukraine, plus Fidesz by-election wins, reinforce doubts about TISZA reaching supermajority thresholds for constitutional reforms.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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