Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense speculation around Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as the next Trump Cabinet departures, driven by a fresh report that President Trump recently polled advisors on replacing Gabbard amid tensions over Iran policy, elevating her implied probability to 37.5%. Lutnick's odds at 37% stem from lingering bipartisan calls for his resignation following February revelations of his past ties to Jeffrey Epstein, prompting congressional scrutiny. Sean Duffy (33%), Kelly Loeffler (33%), and others trail closely due to agency-specific pressures like Transportation staffing shortages and SBA financial disclosures. The tight cluster signals no imminent exit but anticipates potential firings, with historical second-term turnover patterns and upcoming congressional hearings as key catalysts for separation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоTulsi Gabbard 38%
Howard Lutnick 37%
Doug Collins 37%
Pete Hegseth 35%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Tulsi Gabbard
38%
Howard Lutnick
37%
Doug Collins
37%
Pete Hegseth
35%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
32%
Scott Bessent
32%
Sean Duffy
31%
John Ratcliffe
31%
Mike Waltz
31%
Russell T. Vought
30%
Doug Burgum
30%
Susie Wiles
30%
Chris Wright
29%
Jamieson Greer
28%
None before 2027
16%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
9%
Lee Zeldin
8%
J.D. Vance
3%
Marco Rubio
18%
Linda McMahon
25%
Brooke Rollins
31%
Scott Turner
29%
Kelly Loeffler
30%
Tulsi Gabbard 38%
Howard Lutnick 37%
Doug Collins 37%
Pete Hegseth 35%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Tulsi Gabbard
$6 Объем
38%
Howard Lutnick
$5 Объем
37%
Doug Collins
$5 Объем
37%
Pete Hegseth
$31 Объем
35%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$78 Объем
32%
Scott Bessent
$5 Объем
32%
Sean Duffy
$5 Объем
31%
John Ratcliffe
$5 Объем
31%
Mike Waltz
$5 Объем
31%
Russell T. Vought
$6 Объем
30%
Doug Burgum
$5 Объем
30%
Susie Wiles
$6 Объем
30%
Chris Wright
$5 Объем
29%
Jamieson Greer
$5 Объем
28%
None before 2027
$6 Объем
16%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$8 Объем
9%
Lee Zeldin
$534 Объем
8%
J.D. Vance
$6 Объем
3%
Marco Rubio
$6 Объем
18%
Linda McMahon
$5 Объем
25%
Brooke Rollins
$5 Объем
31%
Scott Turner
$5 Объем
29%
Kelly Loeffler
$5 Объем
30%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense speculation around Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as the next Trump Cabinet departures, driven by a fresh report that President Trump recently polled advisors on replacing Gabbard amid tensions over Iran policy, elevating her implied probability to 37.5%. Lutnick's odds at 37% stem from lingering bipartisan calls for his resignation following February revelations of his past ties to Jeffrey Epstein, prompting congressional scrutiny. Sean Duffy (33%), Kelly Loeffler (33%), and others trail closely due to agency-specific pressures like Transportation staffing shortages and SBA financial disclosures. The tight cluster signals no imminent exit but anticipates potential firings, with historical second-term turnover patterns and upcoming congressional hearings as key catalysts for separation.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Объем
$754Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense speculation around Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as the next Trump Cabinet departures, driven by a fresh report that President Trump recently polled advisors on replacing Gabbard amid tensions over Iran policy, elevating her implied probability to 37.5%. Lutnick's odds at 37% stem from lingering bipartisan calls for his resignation following February revelations of his past ties to Jeffrey Epstein, prompting congressional scrutiny. Sean Duffy (33%), Kelly Loeffler (33%), and others trail closely due to agency-specific pressures like Transportation staffing shortages and SBA financial disclosures. The tight cluster signals no imminent exit but anticipates potential firings, with historical second-term turnover patterns and upcoming congressional hearings as key catalysts for separation.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Объем
$754Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 2, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense speculation around Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as the next Trump Cabinet departures, driven by a fresh report that President Trump recently polled advisors on replacing Gabbard amid tensions over Iran policy, elevating her implied probability to 37.5%. Lutnick's odds at 37% stem from lingering bipartisan calls for his resignation following February revelations of his past ties to Jeffrey Epstein, prompting congressional scrutiny. Sean Duffy (33%), Kelly Loeffler (33%), and others trail closely due to agency-specific pressures like Transportation staffing shortages and SBA financial disclosures. The tight cluster signals no imminent exit but anticipates potential firings, with historical second-term turnover patterns and upcoming congressional hearings as key catalysts for separation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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