Polymarket traders' near-even split between ≥3.4% (40.4%) and 3.3% (40.1%) for March 2026 CPI year-over-year reflects tight consensus around Cleveland Fed nowcasts of 3.25% updated April 1, up sharply from February's steady 2.4% print amid base effects from last year's low March reading and sticky shelter costs. Persistent core goods pressures and tariff passthrough risks, highlighted in recent FOMC projections raising 2026 PCE inflation to 2.7%, have fueled the contest, with 3.2% trailing at 14%. Key swing factors include energy volatility and food price gains forecasted at 3.6%; resolution hinges on the April 10 Bureau of Labor Statistics release, which could recalibrate Fed funds rate cut odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено≥3,4% 40.4%
3,3% 39.9%
3,2% 14%
3,1% 4.9%
$888,170 Объем
$888,170 Объем
10 апр. 2026 г.
≤2,6%
1%
2,7%
1%
2,8%
1%
2,9%
1%
3,0%
1%
3,1%
5%
3,2%
14%
3,3%
40%
≥3,4%
40%
≥3,4% 40.4%
3,3% 39.9%
3,2% 14%
3,1% 4.9%
$888,170 Объем
$888,170 Объем
10 апр. 2026 г.
≤2,6%
$108,693 Объем
1%
2,7%
$105,953 Объем
1%
2,8%
$50,786 Объем
1%
2,9%
$48,270 Объем
1%
3,0%
$51,690 Объем
1%
3,1%
$71,904 Объем
5%
3,2%
$47,214 Объем
14%
3,3%
$168,897 Объем
40%
≥3,4%
$234,766 Объем
40%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Polymarket traders' near-even split between ≥3.4% (40.4%) and 3.3% (40.1%) for March 2026 CPI year-over-year reflects tight consensus around Cleveland Fed nowcasts of 3.25% updated April 1, up sharply from February's steady 2.4% print amid base effects from last year's low March reading and sticky shelter costs. Persistent core goods pressures and tariff passthrough risks, highlighted in recent FOMC projections raising 2026 PCE inflation to 2.7%, have fueled the contest, with 3.2% trailing at 14%. Key swing factors include energy volatility and food price gains forecasted at 3.6%; resolution hinges on the April 10 Bureau of Labor Statistics release, which could recalibrate Fed funds rate cut odds.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Объем
$888,170Дата окончания
10 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Polymarket traders' near-even split between ≥3.4% (40.4%) and 3.3% (40.1%) for March 2026 CPI year-over-year reflects tight consensus around Cleveland Fed nowcasts of 3.25% updated April 1, up sharply from February's steady 2.4% print amid base effects from last year's low March reading and sticky shelter costs. Persistent core goods pressures and tariff passthrough risks, highlighted in recent FOMC projections raising 2026 PCE inflation to 2.7%, have fueled the contest, with 3.2% trailing at 14%. Key swing factors include energy volatility and food price gains forecasted at 3.6%; resolution hinges on the April 10 Bureau of Labor Statistics release, which could recalibrate Fed funds rate cut odds.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Объем
$888,170Дата окончания
10 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders' near-even split between ≥3.4% (40.4%) and 3.3% (40.1%) for March 2026 CPI year-over-year reflects tight consensus around Cleveland Fed nowcasts of 3.25% updated April 1, up sharply from February's steady 2.4% print amid base effects from last year's low March reading and sticky shelter costs. Persistent core goods pressures and tariff passthrough risks, highlighted in recent FOMC projections raising 2026 PCE inflation to 2.7%, have fueled the contest, with 3.2% trailing at 14%. Key swing factors include energy volatility and food price gains forecasted at 3.6%; resolution hinges on the April 10 Bureau of Labor Statistics release, which could recalibrate Fed funds rate cut odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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