Recent upward revisions to Brazil’s 2026 IPCA inflation forecasts, now centered near 5.04% in the Central Bank’s Focus survey following May’s 4.72% year-over-year print, underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the 5.00-5.49% and 6.00-6.49% ranges. Persistent energy-price pressures stemming from Middle East supply disruptions have offset earlier disinflation progress and pushed expectations above the 3% target midpoint plus tolerance band, while the central bank maintains a cautious easing stance amid sticky services inflation and fiscal risks. Traders appear divided on whether moderating global oil effects or renewed domestic price momentum will dominate the remainder of the year, leaving the outcome sensitive to upcoming IPCA releases and any further shifts in commodity markets.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5,00–5,49% 23.9%
6,00–6,49% 23.5%
5,50–5,99% 20.2%
4,50–4,99% 11.3%
$65,500 Объем
$65,500 Объем
12 янв. 2027 г.
<3,00%
1%
3,00-3,49%
1%
3,50–3,99%
3%
4,00–4,49%
6%
4,50–4,99%
11%
5,00–5,49%
24%
5,50–5,99%
20%
6,00–6,49%
24%
6,50–6,99%
3%
7,00%+
5%
5,00–5,49% 23.9%
6,00–6,49% 23.5%
5,50–5,99% 20.2%
4,50–4,99% 11.3%
$65,500 Объем
$65,500 Объем
12 янв. 2027 г.
<3,00%
$4,672 Объем
1%
3,00-3,49%
$4,436 Объем
1%
3,50–3,99%
$11,770 Объем
3%
4,00–4,49%
$8,850 Объем
6%
4,50–4,99%
$8,530 Объем
11%
5,00–5,49%
$7,053 Объем
24%
5,50–5,99%
$5,949 Объем
20%
6,00–6,49%
$5,051 Объем
24%
6,50–6,99%
$5,366 Объем
3%
7,00%+
$3,823 Объем
5%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent upward revisions to Brazil’s 2026 IPCA inflation forecasts, now centered near 5.04% in the Central Bank’s Focus survey following May’s 4.72% year-over-year print, underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the 5.00-5.49% and 6.00-6.49% ranges. Persistent energy-price pressures stemming from Middle East supply disruptions have offset earlier disinflation progress and pushed expectations above the 3% target midpoint plus tolerance band, while the central bank maintains a cautious easing stance amid sticky services inflation and fiscal risks. Traders appear divided on whether moderating global oil effects or renewed domestic price momentum will dominate the remainder of the year, leaving the outcome sensitive to upcoming IPCA releases and any further shifts in commodity markets.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Открытие рынка: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Объем
$65,500Дата окончания
12 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent upward revisions to Brazil’s 2026 IPCA inflation forecasts, now centered near 5.04% in the Central Bank’s Focus survey following May’s 4.72% year-over-year print, underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the 5.00-5.49% and 6.00-6.49% ranges. Persistent energy-price pressures stemming from Middle East supply disruptions have offset earlier disinflation progress and pushed expectations above the 3% target midpoint plus tolerance band, while the central bank maintains a cautious easing stance amid sticky services inflation and fiscal risks. Traders appear divided on whether moderating global oil effects or renewed domestic price momentum will dominate the remainder of the year, leaving the outcome sensitive to upcoming IPCA releases and any further shifts in commodity markets.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Объем
$65,500Дата окончания
12 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent upward revisions to Brazil’s 2026 IPCA inflation forecasts, now centered near 5.04% in the Central Bank’s Focus survey following May’s 4.72% year-over-year print, underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the 5.00-5.49% and 6.00-6.49% ranges. Persistent energy-price pressures stemming from Middle East supply disruptions have offset earlier disinflation progress and pushed expectations above the 3% target midpoint plus tolerance band, while the central bank maintains a cautious easing stance amid sticky services inflation and fiscal risks. Traders appear divided on whether moderating global oil effects or renewed domestic price momentum will dominate the remainder of the year, leaving the outcome sensitive to upcoming IPCA releases and any further shifts in commodity markets.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы