Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts heavily toward India's 2026 annual inflation landing in the 2.25%-2.99% band at 43% implied probability, reflecting sustained disinflation momentum from August's CPI print of 3.65%—the lowest in nearly five years—and the RBI's 50 basis-point repo rate cut to 6.5% in October, signaling policy easing amid benign food prices and a robust monsoon harvest. RBI's FY26 projection of 4.2% average inflation contrasts with traders' bearish bets on further undershooting the 4% target, buoyed by stable global oil, moderating core pressures, and strong GDP growth cushioning demand. Upcoming December MPC and CPI releases could shift these market-implied odds if food volatility resurfaces.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено2,25% – 2,99% 31%
1,50% до 2,24% 24%
От 3,75% до 4,49% 21%
От 3,00% до 3,74% 11%
$56,425 Объем
$56,425 Объем
<0,75%
8%
0,75% до 1,49%
8%
1,50% до 2,24%
24%
2,25% – 2,99%
41%
От 3,00% до 3,74%
11%
От 3,75% до 4,49%
21%
4,50%+
12%
2,25% – 2,99% 31%
1,50% до 2,24% 24%
От 3,75% до 4,49% 21%
От 3,00% до 3,74% 11%
$56,425 Объем
$56,425 Объем
<0,75%
8%
0,75% до 1,49%
8%
1,50% до 2,24%
24%
2,25% – 2,99%
41%
От 3,00% до 3,74%
11%
От 3,75% до 4,49%
21%
4,50%+
12%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts heavily toward India's 2026 annual inflation landing in the 2.25%-2.99% band at 43% implied probability, reflecting sustained disinflation momentum from August's CPI print of 3.65%—the lowest in nearly five years—and the RBI's 50 basis-point repo rate cut to 6.5% in October, signaling policy easing amid benign food prices and a robust monsoon harvest. RBI's FY26 projection of 4.2% average inflation contrasts with traders' bearish bets on further undershooting the 4% target, buoyed by stable global oil, moderating core pressures, and strong GDP growth cushioning demand. Upcoming December MPC and CPI releases could shift these market-implied odds if food volatility resurfaces.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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