Trader sentiment on Canada’s 2026 annual inflation leans toward the 3.0-3.4% band at 30.7% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 2.0-2.4% (22.5%) and 2.5-2.9% (19.5%), reflecting uncertainty over the Bank of Canada’s rate path amid sticky core inflation. August CPI printed at 2.0% headline but core gauges hovered at 2.4-2.9%, driven by persistent shelter costs (up 5.1% YoY) despite five consecutive 25bps cuts to 3.75%. Consensus forecasts cluster around 2.1-2.3% for 2026, but traders price upside risks from wage growth, oil volatility, and potential U.S. tariffs under a Trump win, versus downside from further easing if disinflation accelerates—key differentiator ahead of October CPI and October 23 BoC decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоГодовая инфляция в Канаде в 2026 году
Годовая инфляция в Канаде в 2026 году
2,5–2,9% 33%
2,0–2,4% 16%
<1,0% 16%
3,5-3,9% 13.5%
<1,0%
16%
1,0–1,4%
9%
1,5–1,9%
4%
2,0–2,4%
22%
2,5–2,9%
20%
3,0–3,4%
31%
3,5-3,9%
13%
4,0%+
12%
2,5–2,9% 33%
2,0–2,4% 16%
<1,0% 16%
3,5-3,9% 13.5%
<1,0%
16%
1,0–1,4%
9%
1,5–1,9%
4%
2,0–2,4%
22%
2,5–2,9%
20%
3,0–3,4%
31%
3,5-3,9%
13%
4,0%+
12%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Canada’s 2026 annual inflation leans toward the 3.0-3.4% band at 30.7% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 2.0-2.4% (22.5%) and 2.5-2.9% (19.5%), reflecting uncertainty over the Bank of Canada’s rate path amid sticky core inflation. August CPI printed at 2.0% headline but core gauges hovered at 2.4-2.9%, driven by persistent shelter costs (up 5.1% YoY) despite five consecutive 25bps cuts to 3.75%. Consensus forecasts cluster around 2.1-2.3% for 2026, but traders price upside risks from wage growth, oil volatility, and potential U.S. tariffs under a Trump win, versus downside from further easing if disinflation accelerates—key differentiator ahead of October CPI and October 23 BoC decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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