Polymarket traders price a 33% implied probability for the April 2026 unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, mirroring March's steady reading amid resilient nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 that reversed February's contraction. This trader consensus reflects underlying labor market stability, supported by low initial jobless claims around 214,000 despite a slight uptick, yet tempered by contracting ISM manufacturing employment at 48.7 and a sharp services drop to 45.2. The wide dispersion—23% at 4.2% versus 20% at 4.4%—stems from mixed signals of cooling hiring amid Fed-noted "low hire, low fire" dynamics, with outcomes below 4.2% requiring sustained momentum and above 4.4% signaling emerging slack ahead of the May release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоУровень безработицы в апреле
Уровень безработицы в апреле
4,3% 33%
4,2% 23%
4,4% 21%
4,5% 10%
$24,507 Объем
$24,507 Объем
8 мая 2026 г.
≤3,9%
2%
4,0%
4%
4,1%
7%
4,2%
23%
4,3%
33%
4,4%
21%
4,5%
10%
4,6%
4%
≥4,7%
3%
4,3% 33%
4,2% 23%
4,4% 21%
4,5% 10%
$24,507 Объем
$24,507 Объем
8 мая 2026 г.
≤3,9%
$2,584 Объем
2%
4,0%
$2,682 Объем
4%
4,1%
$1,757 Объем
7%
4,2%
$2,313 Объем
23%
4,3%
$2,234 Объем
33%
4,4%
$5,841 Объем
21%
4,5%
$1,173 Объем
10%
4,6%
$1,666 Объем
4%
≥4,7%
$4,258 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 33% implied probability for the April 2026 unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, mirroring March's steady reading amid resilient nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 that reversed February's contraction. This trader consensus reflects underlying labor market stability, supported by low initial jobless claims around 214,000 despite a slight uptick, yet tempered by contracting ISM manufacturing employment at 48.7 and a sharp services drop to 45.2. The wide dispersion—23% at 4.2% versus 20% at 4.4%—stems from mixed signals of cooling hiring amid Fed-noted "low hire, low fire" dynamics, with outcomes below 4.2% requiring sustained momentum and above 4.4% signaling emerging slack ahead of the May release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ET
Объем
$24,507Дата окончания
8 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders price a 33% implied probability for the April 2026 unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, mirroring March's steady reading amid resilient nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 that reversed February's contraction. This trader consensus reflects underlying labor market stability, supported by low initial jobless claims around 214,000 despite a slight uptick, yet tempered by contracting ISM manufacturing employment at 48.7 and a sharp services drop to 45.2. The wide dispersion—23% at 4.2% versus 20% at 4.4%—stems from mixed signals of cooling hiring amid Fed-noted "low hire, low fire" dynamics, with outcomes below 4.2% requiring sustained momentum and above 4.4% signaling emerging slack ahead of the May release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$24,507Дата окончания
8 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 33% implied probability for the April 2026 unemployment rate holding at 4.3%, mirroring March's steady reading amid resilient nonfarm payroll gains of 178,000 that reversed February's contraction. This trader consensus reflects underlying labor market stability, supported by low initial jobless claims around 214,000 despite a slight uptick, yet tempered by contracting ISM manufacturing employment at 48.7 and a sharp services drop to 45.2. The wide dispersion—23% at 4.2% versus 20% at 4.4%—stems from mixed signals of cooling hiring amid Fed-noted "low hire, low fire" dynamics, with outcomes below 4.2% requiring sustained momentum and above 4.4% signaling emerging slack ahead of the May release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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