Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 US GDP growth in a narrow 2.5–3.0% range at 21% implied probability, with adjacent bins within 3.5 points, reflecting resilient economic momentum tempered by policy headwinds. December nonfarm payrolls added 227,000 jobs versus 160,000 expected, holding unemployment at 4.1%, while November CPI eased to 2.7% year-over-year, supporting two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 per the latest dot plot. However, incoming Trump administration tariff proposals and fiscal stimulus debates create upside for consumer spending and downside risks from trade disruptions, keeping forecasts dispersed around 2–3%. Watch January ISM PMIs and Q4 GDP release for directional shifts ahead of FOMC in late January.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРост ВВП США в 1 квартале 2026 года?
Рост ВВП США в 1 квартале 2026 года?
2,5–3,0% 18.3%
3,0–3,5% 18%
2,0–2,5% 16%
1,5–2,0% 15.8%
$196,653 Объем
$196,653 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
<1,0%
12%
1,0–1,5%
11%
1,5–2,0%
16%
2,0–2,5%
16%
2,5–3,0%
18%
3,0–3,5%
18%
≥3,5%
15%
2,5–3,0% 18.3%
3,0–3,5% 18%
2,0–2,5% 16%
1,5–2,0% 15.8%
$196,653 Объем
$196,653 Объем
Apr 30, 2026
<1,0%
$21,118 Объем
12%
1,0–1,5%
$4,283 Объем
11%
1,5–2,0%
$13,566 Объем
16%
2,0–2,5%
$30,510 Объем
16%
2,5–3,0%
$13,342 Объем
18%
3,0–3,5%
$45,365 Объем
18%
≥3,5%
$68,469 Объем
15%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 US GDP growth in a narrow 2.5–3.0% range at 21% implied probability, with adjacent bins within 3.5 points, reflecting resilient economic momentum tempered by policy headwinds. December nonfarm payrolls added 227,000 jobs versus 160,000 expected, holding unemployment at 4.1%, while November CPI eased to 2.7% year-over-year, supporting two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 per the latest dot plot. However, incoming Trump administration tariff proposals and fiscal stimulus debates create upside for consumer spending and downside risks from trade disruptions, keeping forecasts dispersed around 2–3%. Watch January ISM PMIs and Q4 GDP release for directional shifts ahead of FOMC in late January.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Открытие рынка: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Объем
$196,653Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 US GDP growth in a narrow 2.5–3.0% range at 21% implied probability, with adjacent bins within 3.5 points, reflecting resilient economic momentum tempered by policy headwinds. December nonfarm payrolls added 227,000 jobs versus 160,000 expected, holding unemployment at 4.1%, while November CPI eased to 2.7% year-over-year, supporting two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 per the latest dot plot. However, incoming Trump administration tariff proposals and fiscal stimulus debates create upside for consumer spending and downside risks from trade disruptions, keeping forecasts dispersed around 2–3%. Watch January ISM PMIs and Q4 GDP release for directional shifts ahead of FOMC in late January.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Объем
$196,653Дата окончания
Apr 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 US GDP growth in a narrow 2.5–3.0% range at 21% implied probability, with adjacent bins within 3.5 points, reflecting resilient economic momentum tempered by policy headwinds. December nonfarm payrolls added 227,000 jobs versus 160,000 expected, holding unemployment at 4.1%, while November CPI eased to 2.7% year-over-year, supporting two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 per the latest dot plot. However, incoming Trump administration tariff proposals and fiscal stimulus debates create upside for consumer spending and downside risks from trade disruptions, keeping forecasts dispersed around 2–3%. Watch January ISM PMIs and Q4 GDP release for directional shifts ahead of FOMC in late January.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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