Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 60.5% implied probability to Japan's February unemployment rate hitting 2.7%, up slightly from January's 2.6% figure, driven by a recent softening in labor demand signals. The job openings-to-applicants ratio dipped to 1.23 in January from 1.26 prior, the lowest since mid-2023, amid manufacturing slowdowns and tepid wage growth despite bonus-season gains. Lower odds for ≤2.4% (9.6%) or ≥3.0% (6.0%) reflect the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) steady policy normalization and structural low unemployment around 2.5–2.7%, with minimal recession risks. Key catalyst: Official Statistics Bureau release expected late March, ahead of BoJ's April meeting scrutinizing labor trends for further rate hikes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоFebruary Unemployment Rate - Japan
February Unemployment Rate - Japan
2.7% 61%
2.6% 10%
≤2.4% 9.3%
2.8% 9%
$33,522 Объем
$33,522 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
≤2.4%
9%
2.5%
2%
2.6%
10%
2.7%
61%
2.8%
9%
2.9%
8%
≥3.0%
6%
2.7% 61%
2.6% 10%
≤2.4% 9.3%
2.8% 9%
$33,522 Объем
$33,522 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
≤2.4%
$13,311 Объем
9%
2.5%
$225 Объем
2%
2.6%
$273 Объем
10%
2.7%
$315 Объем
61%
2.8%
$259 Объем
9%
2.9%
$18,805 Объем
8%
≥3.0%
$334 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Объем
$33,522Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported in the Statistics Bureau of Japan's Labour Force Survey for February 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Labour Force Survey for February 2026. Upon release, the survey will be made available at: https://www.stat.go.jp/data/roudou/index.html.
The next data release is scheduled for March 31, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/roudou/1543.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$33,522Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 60.5% implied probability to Japan's February unemployment rate hitting 2.7%, up slightly from January's 2.6% figure, driven by a recent softening in labor demand signals. The job openings-to-applicants ratio dipped to 1.23 in January from 1.26 prior, the lowest since mid-2023, amid manufacturing slowdowns and tepid wage growth despite bonus-season gains. Lower odds for ≤2.4% (9.6%) or ≥3.0% (6.0%) reflect the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) steady policy normalization and structural low unemployment around 2.5–2.7%, with minimal recession risks. Key catalyst: Official Statistics Bureau release expected late March, ahead of BoJ's April meeting scrutinizing labor trends for further rate hikes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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