Polymarket traders show razor-thin consensus on Mexico's February unemployment rate, with ≤2.4% at 42.5% implied probability slightly ahead of 2.6% at 39.6%, and 2.5% at 25.5%, reflecting steady labor market dynamics after January's 2.5% print from INEGI. Recent IMSS formal job creation data exceeded expectations by 5% in February, bolstering bets on further tightening, while softening manufacturing PMI signals caution around service sector hiring. Banxico's recent 50 basis point rate cut supports economic resilience amid cooling inflation, but peso volatility adds uncertainty. Key differentiator: informal employment trends, which comprise over half the workforce and could tip the rate below 2.4% or stabilize near 2.6%. INEGI releases data end of March, with consensus forecasts clustering at 2.5%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоУровень безработицы в феврале - Мексика
Уровень безработицы в феврале - Мексика
2,6% 44.6%
≤2,4% 42%
2,5% 26%
2,8% <1%
$23,742 Объем
$23,742 Объем
≤2,4%
42%
2,5%
26%
2,6%
39%
2,7%
<1%
2,8%
<1%
2,9%
<1%
≥3,0%
<1%
2,6% 44.6%
≤2,4% 42%
2,5% 26%
2,8% <1%
$23,742 Объем
$23,742 Объем
≤2,4%
42%
2,5%
26%
2,6%
39%
2,7%
<1%
2,8%
<1%
2,9%
<1%
≥3,0%
<1%
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders show razor-thin consensus on Mexico's February unemployment rate, with ≤2.4% at 42.5% implied probability slightly ahead of 2.6% at 39.6%, and 2.5% at 25.5%, reflecting steady labor market dynamics after January's 2.5% print from INEGI. Recent IMSS formal job creation data exceeded expectations by 5% in February, bolstering bets on further tightening, while softening manufacturing PMI signals caution around service sector hiring. Banxico's recent 50 basis point rate cut supports economic resilience amid cooling inflation, but peso volatility adds uncertainty. Key differentiator: informal employment trends, which comprise over half the workforce and could tip the rate below 2.4% or stabilize near 2.6%. INEGI releases data end of March, with consensus forecasts clustering at 2.5%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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