Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for Mexico's February unemployment rate at ≤2.4%, driven by January's steady 2.5% print from INEGI—down from December's 2.6%—and sustained labor market strength from nearshoring investments and record remittances exceeding $60 billion annually. Robust manufacturing PMI above 52 and Q4 GDP growth of 3.2% reinforce expectations of further moderation, positioning 2.5% (26.5%) as the next favored outcome. However, U.S. economic softening and Banxico's 11% policy rate pose mild upside risks to 2.6-2.8% levels (17-25% combined). INEGI's March 22 release will settle the market, with trader capital reflecting cautious optimism amid global trade shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоУровень безработицы в феврале - Мексика
Уровень безработицы в феврале - Мексика
≤2,4% 58%
2,5% 21%
2,8% 7.8%
2,7% 7.5%
$12,557 Объем
$12,557 Объем
≤2,4%
58%
2,5%
27%
2,6%
9%
2,7%
8%
2,8%
8%
2,9%
5%
≥3,0%
2%
≤2,4% 58%
2,5% 21%
2,8% 7.8%
2,7% 7.5%
$12,557 Объем
$12,557 Объем
≤2,4%
58%
2,5%
27%
2,6%
9%
2,7%
8%
2,8%
8%
2,9%
5%
≥3,0%
2%
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for Mexico's February unemployment rate at ≤2.4%, driven by January's steady 2.5% print from INEGI—down from December's 2.6%—and sustained labor market strength from nearshoring investments and record remittances exceeding $60 billion annually. Robust manufacturing PMI above 52 and Q4 GDP growth of 3.2% reinforce expectations of further moderation, positioning 2.5% (26.5%) as the next favored outcome. However, U.S. economic softening and Banxico's 11% policy rate pose mild upside risks to 2.6-2.8% levels (17-25% combined). INEGI's March 22 release will settle the market, with trader capital reflecting cautious optimism amid global trade shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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