Weak October 2024 nonfarm payrolls of just 12,000—far below the 113,000 consensus—signal a softening US labor market, elevating trader scrutiny of unemployment potentially peaking higher in 2026 despite the rate holding at 4.1%. The Federal Reserve's September Summary of Economic Projections forecasts year-end 2026 unemployment at 4.3%, reflecting expected policy normalization with 75 basis points of additional rate cuts through 2025 amid cooling inflation and GDP growth near 2%. Supporting indicators include declining JOLTS job openings and rising continuing claims, though no recession is priced in yet. Key catalysts ahead: December 6 November jobs report, December 18 FOMC meeting, and Q4 GDP release, which could shift market-implied paths for jobless trends.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$284,170 Объем
Jan 10, 2026
5,0%
60%
5,5%
34%
6,0%
18%
7,0%
15%
10,0%
7%
$284,170 Объем
5,0%
$74,423 Объем
60%
5,5%
$174,371 Объем
34%
6,0%
$0 Объем
18%
7,0%
$16,436 Объем
15%
10,0%
$18,940 Объем
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Weak October 2024 nonfarm payrolls of just 12,000—far below the 113,000 consensus—signal a softening US labor market, elevating trader scrutiny of unemployment potentially peaking higher in 2026 despite the rate holding at 4.1%. The Federal Reserve's September Summary of Economic Projections forecasts year-end 2026 unemployment at 4.3%, reflecting expected policy normalization with 75 basis points of additional rate cuts through 2025 amid cooling inflation and GDP growth near 2%. Supporting indicators include declining JOLTS job openings and rising continuing claims, though no recession is priced in yet. Key catalysts ahead: December 6 November jobs report, December 18 FOMC meeting, and Q4 GDP release, which could shift market-implied paths for jobless trends.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Объем
$284,170Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Weak October 2024 nonfarm payrolls of just 12,000—far below the 113,000 consensus—signal a softening US labor market, elevating trader scrutiny of unemployment potentially peaking higher in 2026 despite the rate holding at 4.1%. The Federal Reserve's September Summary of Economic Projections forecasts year-end 2026 unemployment at 4.3%, reflecting expected policy normalization with 75 basis points of additional rate cuts through 2025 amid cooling inflation and GDP growth near 2%. Supporting indicators include declining JOLTS job openings and rising continuing claims, though no recession is priced in yet. Key catalysts ahead: December 6 November jobs report, December 18 FOMC meeting, and Q4 GDP release, which could shift market-implied paths for jobless trends.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$284,170Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Weak October 2024 nonfarm payrolls of just 12,000—far below the 113,000 consensus—signal a softening US labor market, elevating trader scrutiny of unemployment potentially peaking higher in 2026 despite the rate holding at 4.1%. The Federal Reserve's September Summary of Economic Projections forecasts year-end 2026 unemployment at 4.3%, reflecting expected policy normalization with 75 basis points of additional rate cuts through 2025 amid cooling inflation and GDP growth near 2%. Supporting indicators include declining JOLTS job openings and rising continuing claims, though no recession is priced in yet. Key catalysts ahead: December 6 November jobs report, December 18 FOMC meeting, and Q4 GDP release, which could shift market-implied paths for jobless trends.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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