US nonfarm payrolls expanded by 254,000 in September—exceeding economist consensus—while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, underscoring labor market resilience amid the Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis point rate cut to 4.75-5.00%. The FOMC's September dot plot projects unemployment rising modestly to 4.4% by year-end 2024 before easing to 4.3% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, reflecting trader consensus on a soft landing as inflation cools toward 2%. Recent downward revisions to prior months' job gains highlight underlying softening, yet no recession signals have emerged in the past 30 days. Key catalysts include the November 1 jobs report and December 18 FOMC meeting, which could shift expectations if hiring decelerates sharply or wage pressures persist.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$284,138 Объем
Jan 10, 2026
5,0%
60%
5,5%
34%
6,0%
18%
7,0%
15%
10,0%
7%
$284,138 Объем
5,0%
$74,421 Объем
60%
5,5%
$174,341 Объем
34%
6,0%
$0 Объем
18%
7,0%
$16,436 Объем
15%
10,0%
$18,940 Объем
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.US nonfarm payrolls expanded by 254,000 in September—exceeding economist consensus—while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, underscoring labor market resilience amid the Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis point rate cut to 4.75-5.00%. The FOMC's September dot plot projects unemployment rising modestly to 4.4% by year-end 2024 before easing to 4.3% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, reflecting trader consensus on a soft landing as inflation cools toward 2%. Recent downward revisions to prior months' job gains highlight underlying softening, yet no recession signals have emerged in the past 30 days. Key catalysts include the November 1 jobs report and December 18 FOMC meeting, which could shift expectations if hiring decelerates sharply or wage pressures persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Объем
$284,138Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.US nonfarm payrolls expanded by 254,000 in September—exceeding economist consensus—while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, underscoring labor market resilience amid the Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis point rate cut to 4.75-5.00%. The FOMC's September dot plot projects unemployment rising modestly to 4.4% by year-end 2024 before easing to 4.3% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, reflecting trader consensus on a soft landing as inflation cools toward 2%. Recent downward revisions to prior months' job gains highlight underlying softening, yet no recession signals have emerged in the past 30 days. Key catalysts include the November 1 jobs report and December 18 FOMC meeting, which could shift expectations if hiring decelerates sharply or wage pressures persist.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$284,138Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US nonfarm payrolls expanded by 254,000 in September—exceeding economist consensus—while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, underscoring labor market resilience amid the Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis point rate cut to 4.75-5.00%. The FOMC's September dot plot projects unemployment rising modestly to 4.4% by year-end 2024 before easing to 4.3% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, reflecting trader consensus on a soft landing as inflation cools toward 2%. Recent downward revisions to prior months' job gains highlight underlying softening, yet no recession signals have emerged in the past 30 days. Key catalysts include the November 1 jobs report and December 18 FOMC meeting, which could shift expectations if hiring decelerates sharply or wage pressures persist.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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