Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest rebound in March nonfarm payrolls to around 100k or better at 30.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations of reversal from February's anomalous -92k decline—blamed on severe weather disruptions and a nurses' strike—against a FactSet economist consensus of +57k. Close competition from 50k–100k (22.5%) and 0–50k (22.0%) buckets underscores labor market uncertainty, with low initial jobless claims at 210k signaling stability but tepid ADP private payrolls (recent monthly +63k) tempering optimism. Key swing factors include potential benchmark revisions and strike normalization; the report releases April 3, alongside unemployment (steady at 4.4% expected) and wage growth data that could sway Fed rate path views.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСколько рабочих мест добавлено в марте?
Сколько рабочих мест добавлено в марте?
100 тыс.+ 28%
50 тыс. – 100 тыс. 23%
0 – 50 тыс. 22%
-50 тыс. – 0 12%
$17,355 Объем
$17,355 Объем
<-150 тыс.
3%
-150 тыс. – -100 тыс.
4%
-100 тыс. – -50 тыс.
2%
-50 тыс. – 0
12%
0 – 50 тыс.
22%
50 тыс. – 100 тыс.
23%
100 тыс.+
28%
100 тыс.+ 28%
50 тыс. – 100 тыс. 23%
0 – 50 тыс. 22%
-50 тыс. – 0 12%
$17,355 Объем
$17,355 Объем
<-150 тыс.
3%
-150 тыс. – -100 тыс.
4%
-100 тыс. – -50 тыс.
2%
-50 тыс. – 0
12%
0 – 50 тыс.
22%
50 тыс. – 100 тыс.
23%
100 тыс.+
28%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest rebound in March nonfarm payrolls to around 100k or better at 30.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations of reversal from February's anomalous -92k decline—blamed on severe weather disruptions and a nurses' strike—against a FactSet economist consensus of +57k. Close competition from 50k–100k (22.5%) and 0–50k (22.0%) buckets underscores labor market uncertainty, with low initial jobless claims at 210k signaling stability but tepid ADP private payrolls (recent monthly +63k) tempering optimism. Key swing factors include potential benchmark revisions and strike normalization; the report releases April 3, alongside unemployment (steady at 4.4% expected) and wage growth data that could sway Fed rate path views.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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