Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting a sharp expected rebound from February's confirmed 2.4% year-over-year rate, driven primarily by a recent energy price shock from Middle East geopolitical tensions and surging oil costs. Analyst forecasts cluster around 3.2-3.3% headline CPI, boosted by pass-through effects in gasoline and utilities amid persistent shelter and food pressures, as highlighted in previews from Seeking Alpha and Commerzbank. This strong positioning aligns with FOMC's upwardly revised 2026 PCE outlook to 2.7%. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected core components or base effect reversals, with final resolution via BLS data on April 10.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено≥2,8% 98.4%
≤2,0% <1%
2,6% <1%
2,7% <1%
$3,070,923 Объем
$3,070,923 Объем
≤2,0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
<1%
≥2,8%
98%
≥2,8% 98.4%
≤2,0% <1%
2,6% <1%
2,7% <1%
$3,070,923 Объем
$3,070,923 Объем
≤2,0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
<1%
≥2,8%
98%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting a sharp expected rebound from February's confirmed 2.4% year-over-year rate, driven primarily by a recent energy price shock from Middle East geopolitical tensions and surging oil costs. Analyst forecasts cluster around 3.2-3.3% headline CPI, boosted by pass-through effects in gasoline and utilities amid persistent shelter and food pressures, as highlighted in previews from Seeking Alpha and Commerzbank. This strong positioning aligns with FOMC's upwardly revised 2026 PCE outlook to 2.7%. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected core components or base effect reversals, with final resolution via BLS data on April 10.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы