Recent acceleration in U.S. headline CPI to 3.8% year-over-year in April 2026, the highest since May 2023, combined with energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, underpins the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 4.2% (44.5%) and 4.3% (39.5%) for May. Cleveland Fed nowcasts signal a further lift toward 4.2%, driven by continued gasoline and shelter contributions amid firming core readings. The narrow spread between these leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over monthly component volatility and potential offsets in food or goods prices ahead of the June 10 release, with lower-probability tails below 4.1% or at 4.4% and above capturing risks from data revisions or additional supply shocks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4.2% 45%
4.3% 40%
≥4,4% 12%
4.1% 5.7%
$355,840 Объем
$355,840 Объем
≤3,3%
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
6%
4.2%
45%
4.3%
40%
≥4,4%
12%
4.2% 45%
4.3% 40%
≥4,4% 12%
4.1% 5.7%
$355,840 Объем
$355,840 Объем
≤3,3%
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
6%
4.2%
45%
4.3%
40%
≥4,4%
12%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent acceleration in U.S. headline CPI to 3.8% year-over-year in April 2026, the highest since May 2023, combined with energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, underpins the tight clustering of Polymarket odds around 4.2% (44.5%) and 4.3% (39.5%) for May. Cleveland Fed nowcasts signal a further lift toward 4.2%, driven by continued gasoline and shelter contributions amid firming core readings. The narrow spread between these leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over monthly component volatility and potential offsets in food or goods prices ahead of the June 10 release, with lower-probability tails below 4.1% or at 4.4% and above capturing risks from data revisions or additional supply shocks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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