The official Bureau of Labor Statistics release for May 2026 showed headline CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year, up from 3.8% in April and matching the exact level now priced at full consensus. Energy prices drove the acceleration, surging 23.5% annually amid supply shocks from the Iran conflict, with gasoline up 40.5% and contributing the bulk of the monthly 0.5% CPI gain. Shelter costs edged higher to 3.4% while food inflation accelerated to 3.1%, and core CPI reached 2.9%. With the print aligning precisely to expectations and no material revisions anticipated, trader positioning reflects near-certainty ahead of the next FOMC meeting and June data release.