Polymarket traders show closely contested sentiment for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI, with the 4.00%-4.49% bin leading at 33.5% implied probability, neck-and-neck with 3.50%-3.99% (26.0%) and 3.00%-3.49% (25.0%), capturing expectations of gradual disinflation toward Banco de México's (Banxico) 3% ±1% target. September's headline inflation eased to 4.58% year-over-year—the softest since March 2021—bolstered by falling food and energy prices, prompting Banxico's 50 basis point policy rate cut to 10.50% on October 17 amid cooling core pressures. The central bank's October economist survey forecasts 3.42% for 2026, though nearshoring demand and potential U.S. policy shifts post-election add upside risks to higher bins. Watch November 8 CPI data and December Banxico meeting for resolution catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено3,00% до 3,49% 44.5%
4,00% – 4,49% 39%
От 3,50% до 3,99% 26%
4,50% до 4,99% 19%
$26,566 Объем
$26,566 Объем
<2,50%
15%
2,50%–2,99%
3%
3,00% до 3,49%
25%
От 3,50% до 3,99%
26%
4,00% – 4,49%
34%
4,50% до 4,99%
21%
5,00% до 5,49%
14%
5,50%+
16%
3,00% до 3,49% 44.5%
4,00% – 4,49% 39%
От 3,50% до 3,99% 26%
4,50% до 4,99% 19%
$26,566 Объем
$26,566 Объем
<2,50%
15%
2,50%–2,99%
3%
3,00% до 3,49%
25%
От 3,50% до 3,99%
26%
4,00% – 4,49%
34%
4,50% до 4,99%
21%
5,00% до 5,49%
14%
5,50%+
16%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Открытие рынка: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show closely contested sentiment for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI, with the 4.00%-4.49% bin leading at 33.5% implied probability, neck-and-neck with 3.50%-3.99% (26.0%) and 3.00%-3.49% (25.0%), capturing expectations of gradual disinflation toward Banco de México's (Banxico) 3% ±1% target. September's headline inflation eased to 4.58% year-over-year—the softest since March 2021—bolstered by falling food and energy prices, prompting Banxico's 50 basis point policy rate cut to 10.50% on October 17 amid cooling core pressures. The central bank's October economist survey forecasts 3.42% for 2026, though nearshoring demand and potential U.S. policy shifts post-election add upside risks to higher bins. Watch November 8 CPI data and December Banxico meeting for resolution catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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