Polymarket traders price a 64.5% implied probability on 4.5-5.0% year-over-year China GDP growth for Q1 2026, with 32.5% on 5.0-5.5%, reflecting consensus that recent stimulus will deliver moderate expansion amid structural headwinds. December's Politburo meeting signaled proactive fiscal policy, including 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in special treasury bonds and accelerated local debt restructuring, boosting sentiment after November CPI deflation at -0.5% y/y and subdued retail sales. Robust export growth and industrial production offset property weakness, aligning odds with analyst estimates like Goldman Sachs' 4.3-4.5% for 2026. Watch Q4 2024 GDP data on January 17 for early trajectory signals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено4,5–5,0% 65%
5,0–5,5% 33%
5,5–6,0% 2.4%
4,0-4,5% 1.3%
$194,126 Объем
$194,126 Объем
Apr 17, 2026
<3,5%
<1%
3,5–4,0%
<1%
4,0-4,5%
1%
4,5–5,0%
65%
5,0–5,5%
33%
5,5–6,0%
2%
6,0%+
<1%
4,5–5,0% 65%
5,0–5,5% 33%
5,5–6,0% 2.4%
4,0-4,5% 1.3%
$194,126 Объем
$194,126 Объем
Apr 17, 2026
<3,5%
$12,064 Объем
<1%
3,5–4,0%
$49,078 Объем
<1%
4,0-4,5%
$32,132 Объем
1%
4,5–5,0%
$16,549 Объем
65%
5,0–5,5%
$18,466 Объем
33%
5,5–6,0%
$48,431 Объем
2%
6,0%+
$17,407 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlPolymarket traders price a 64.5% implied probability on 4.5-5.0% year-over-year China GDP growth for Q1 2026, with 32.5% on 5.0-5.5%, reflecting consensus that recent stimulus will deliver moderate expansion amid structural headwinds. December's Politburo meeting signaled proactive fiscal policy, including 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in special treasury bonds and accelerated local debt restructuring, boosting sentiment after November CPI deflation at -0.5% y/y and subdued retail sales. Robust export growth and industrial production offset property weakness, aligning odds with analyst estimates like Goldman Sachs' 4.3-4.5% for 2026. Watch Q4 2024 GDP data on January 17 for early trajectory signals.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Объем
$194,126Дата окончания
Apr 17, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlPolymarket traders price a 64.5% implied probability on 4.5-5.0% year-over-year China GDP growth for Q1 2026, with 32.5% on 5.0-5.5%, reflecting consensus that recent stimulus will deliver moderate expansion amid structural headwinds. December's Politburo meeting signaled proactive fiscal policy, including 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in special treasury bonds and accelerated local debt restructuring, boosting sentiment after November CPI deflation at -0.5% y/y and subdued retail sales. Robust export growth and industrial production offset property weakness, aligning odds with analyst estimates like Goldman Sachs' 4.3-4.5% for 2026. Watch Q4 2024 GDP data on January 17 for early trajectory signals.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Объем
$194,126Дата окончания
Apr 17, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 64.5% implied probability on 4.5-5.0% year-over-year China GDP growth for Q1 2026, with 32.5% on 5.0-5.5%, reflecting consensus that recent stimulus will deliver moderate expansion amid structural headwinds. December's Politburo meeting signaled proactive fiscal policy, including 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in special treasury bonds and accelerated local debt restructuring, boosting sentiment after November CPI deflation at -0.5% y/y and subdued retail sales. Robust export growth and industrial production offset property weakness, aligning odds with analyst estimates like Goldman Sachs' 4.3-4.5% for 2026. Watch Q4 2024 GDP data on January 17 for early trajectory signals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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