Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth of 4.5-5.0%, aligning closely with the government's March Two Sessions annual target of 4.5-5%—the lowest since 1991—amid robust January-February industrial production surging 6.3% and retail sales up 2.8%, both exceeding economist forecasts and supported by export strength and stimulus including a 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio. Moderating factors like February manufacturing PMI contracting to 49.0 from property weakness and prospective U.S. tariffs elevate the 5.0-5.5% band to 33%, while lower outcomes reflect downside risks. March PMI data due this week and official Q1 release around mid-April loom as pivotal catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено4,5–5,0% 65%
5,0–5,5% 33%
5,5–6,0% 1.5%
4,0-4,5% 1.2%
$194,558 Объем
$194,558 Объем
Apr 17, 2026
<3,5%
<1%
3,5–4,0%
<1%
4,0-4,5%
1%
4,5–5,0%
65%
5,0–5,5%
33%
5,5–6,0%
2%
6,0%+
<1%
4,5–5,0% 65%
5,0–5,5% 33%
5,5–6,0% 1.5%
4,0-4,5% 1.2%
$194,558 Объем
$194,558 Объем
Apr 17, 2026
<3,5%
$12,064 Объем
<1%
3,5–4,0%
$49,411 Объем
<1%
4,0-4,5%
$32,169 Объем
1%
4,5–5,0%
$16,579 Объем
65%
5,0–5,5%
$18,487 Объем
33%
5,5–6,0%
$48,441 Объем
2%
6,0%+
$17,407 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlPolymarket's trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth of 4.5-5.0%, aligning closely with the government's March Two Sessions annual target of 4.5-5%—the lowest since 1991—amid robust January-February industrial production surging 6.3% and retail sales up 2.8%, both exceeding economist forecasts and supported by export strength and stimulus including a 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio. Moderating factors like February manufacturing PMI contracting to 49.0 from property weakness and prospective U.S. tariffs elevate the 5.0-5.5% band to 33%, while lower outcomes reflect downside risks. March PMI data due this week and official Q1 release around mid-April loom as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Объем
$194,558Дата окончания
Apr 17, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlPolymarket's trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth of 4.5-5.0%, aligning closely with the government's March Two Sessions annual target of 4.5-5%—the lowest since 1991—amid robust January-February industrial production surging 6.3% and retail sales up 2.8%, both exceeding economist forecasts and supported by export strength and stimulus including a 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio. Moderating factors like February manufacturing PMI contracting to 49.0 from property weakness and prospective U.S. tariffs elevate the 5.0-5.5% band to 33%, while lower outcomes reflect downside risks. March PMI data due this week and official Q1 release around mid-April loom as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Объем
$194,558Дата окончания
Apr 17, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus prices a 65% implied probability for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth of 4.5-5.0%, aligning closely with the government's March Two Sessions annual target of 4.5-5%—the lowest since 1991—amid robust January-February industrial production surging 6.3% and retail sales up 2.8%, both exceeding economist forecasts and supported by export strength and stimulus including a 4% deficit-to-GDP ratio. Moderating factors like February manufacturing PMI contracting to 49.0 from property weakness and prospective U.S. tariffs elevate the 5.0-5.5% band to 33%, while lower outcomes reflect downside risks. March PMI data due this week and official Q1 release around mid-April loom as pivotal catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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