Recent Bank of England and IMF projections anchor UK GDP growth near 1.1% and 1.0% respectively for 2026, reflecting the market-implied 93.8% probability on the 1-2% band. Elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East conflict have weighed on real household incomes and consumer spending while tighter financial conditions and subdued business confidence restrain investment. Quarterly outturns through Q2 2026 and stronger-than-expected July monthly data (0.4% MoM) have provided some support, yet underlying momentum remains soft and forecasts from HM Treasury surveys and private economists cluster tightly around 1.1%. Resolution of geopolitical tensions or faster disinflation could lift outcomes toward the upper end of the band, while escalation or sharper labor-market softening would increase downside risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1–2% 93.8%
0–1% 5%
<0 1.4%
3-4% 1.1%
$87,828 Объем
$87,828 Объем
11 фев. 2027 г.
<0
1%
0–1%
5%
1–2%
94%
2-3%
<1%
3-4%
1%
4–5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1–2% 93.8%
0–1% 5%
<0 1.4%
3-4% 1.1%
$87,828 Объем
$87,828 Объем
11 фев. 2027 г.
<0
$12,267 Объем
1%
0–1%
$21,517 Объем
5%
1–2%
$31,562 Объем
94%
2-3%
$5,026 Объем
<1%
3-4%
$3,958 Объем
1%
4–5%
$9,133 Объем
<1%
5%+
$4,364 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Bank of England and IMF projections anchor UK GDP growth near 1.1% and 1.0% respectively for 2026, reflecting the market-implied 93.8% probability on the 1-2% band. Elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East conflict have weighed on real household incomes and consumer spending while tighter financial conditions and subdued business confidence restrain investment. Quarterly outturns through Q2 2026 and stronger-than-expected July monthly data (0.4% MoM) have provided some support, yet underlying momentum remains soft and forecasts from HM Treasury surveys and private economists cluster tightly around 1.1%. Resolution of geopolitical tensions or faster disinflation could lift outcomes toward the upper end of the band, while escalation or sharper labor-market softening would increase downside risks.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Объем
$87,828Дата окончания
12 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Bank of England and IMF projections anchor UK GDP growth near 1.1% and 1.0% respectively for 2026, reflecting the market-implied 93.8% probability on the 1-2% band. Elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East conflict have weighed on real household incomes and consumer spending while tighter financial conditions and subdued business confidence restrain investment. Quarterly outturns through Q2 2026 and stronger-than-expected July monthly data (0.4% MoM) have provided some support, yet underlying momentum remains soft and forecasts from HM Treasury surveys and private economists cluster tightly around 1.1%. Resolution of geopolitical tensions or faster disinflation could lift outcomes toward the upper end of the band, while escalation or sharper labor-market softening would increase downside risks.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$87,828Дата окончания
12 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Bank of England and IMF projections anchor UK GDP growth near 1.1% and 1.0% respectively for 2026, reflecting the market-implied 93.8% probability on the 1-2% band. Elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East conflict have weighed on real household incomes and consumer spending while tighter financial conditions and subdued business confidence restrain investment. Quarterly outturns through Q2 2026 and stronger-than-expected July monthly data (0.4% MoM) have provided some support, yet underlying momentum remains soft and forecasts from HM Treasury surveys and private economists cluster tightly around 1.1%. Resolution of geopolitical tensions or faster disinflation could lift outcomes toward the upper end of the band, while escalation or sharper labor-market softening would increase downside risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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