Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.5% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.3% range, reflecting fiscal drag from Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Statement tax hikes on employers—raising national insurance contributions by 1.2 percentage points—which analysts expect to suppress hiring and wage growth into 2026. Despite Q3 2024 quarterly GDP expanding 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (beating consensus of 0.3%), services activity remains tepid amid sticky CPI inflation at 2.3% in October, constraining Bank of England rate cuts after November's 25 basis point reduction to 4.75%. Broader headwinds include subdued consumer confidence and softening PMI readings, tilting sentiment toward sub-0.3% quarterly output; watch Q4 2024 GDP data due February 2025 and February BoE policy meeting for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено0,0–0,3% 48%
0,3-0,6% 19.6%
0,9-1,2% 15.3%
0,6-0,9% 15.1%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
Отрицательный
7%
0,0–0,3%
48%
0,3-0,6%
20%
0,6-0,9%
22%
0,9-1,2%
15%
1,2–1,5%
1%
1,5–1,8%
1%
1,8%+
3%
0,0–0,3% 48%
0,3-0,6% 19.6%
0,9-1,2% 15.3%
0,6-0,9% 15.1%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
Отрицательный
$0 Объем
7%
0,0–0,3%
$8,738 Объем
48%
0,3-0,6%
$0 Объем
20%
0,6-0,9%
$0 Объем
22%
0,9-1,2%
$0 Объем
15%
1,2–1,5%
$0 Объем
1%
1,5–1,8%
$0 Объем
1%
1,8%+
$494 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.5% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.3% range, reflecting fiscal drag from Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Statement tax hikes on employers—raising national insurance contributions by 1.2 percentage points—which analysts expect to suppress hiring and wage growth into 2026. Despite Q3 2024 quarterly GDP expanding 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (beating consensus of 0.3%), services activity remains tepid amid sticky CPI inflation at 2.3% in October, constraining Bank of England rate cuts after November's 25 basis point reduction to 4.75%. Broader headwinds include subdued consumer confidence and softening PMI readings, tilting sentiment toward sub-0.3% quarterly output; watch Q4 2024 GDP data due February 2025 and February BoE policy meeting for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Объем
$9,232Дата окончания
May 14, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.5% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.3% range, reflecting fiscal drag from Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Statement tax hikes on employers—raising national insurance contributions by 1.2 percentage points—which analysts expect to suppress hiring and wage growth into 2026. Despite Q3 2024 quarterly GDP expanding 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (beating consensus of 0.3%), services activity remains tepid amid sticky CPI inflation at 2.3% in October, constraining Bank of England rate cuts after November's 25 basis point reduction to 4.75%. Broader headwinds include subdued consumer confidence and softening PMI readings, tilting sentiment toward sub-0.3% quarterly output; watch Q4 2024 GDP data due February 2025 and February BoE policy meeting for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$9,232Дата окончания
May 14, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.5% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 0.0-0.3% range, reflecting fiscal drag from Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Statement tax hikes on employers—raising national insurance contributions by 1.2 percentage points—which analysts expect to suppress hiring and wage growth into 2026. Despite Q3 2024 quarterly GDP expanding 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (beating consensus of 0.3%), services activity remains tepid amid sticky CPI inflation at 2.3% in October, constraining Bank of England rate cuts after November's 25 basis point reduction to 4.75%. Broader headwinds include subdued consumer confidence and softening PMI readings, tilting sentiment toward sub-0.3% quarterly output; watch Q4 2024 GDP data due February 2025 and February BoE policy meeting for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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