Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at 61.5% implied probability for the June 7 decision, primarily fueled by April CPI inflation easing to 8.3% year-over-year—above the 4% target but down from March peaks—amid stabilizing ruble exchange rates and moderating wartime demand pressures. After holding at 16% since October amid high inflation, recent data signals potential disinflation, tilting sentiment toward the first cut since September 2022. No change lingers at 26% due to fiscal spending risks, while an increase at 10.5% recedes as unlikely absent renewed price surges. May CPI release this week could recalibrate these capital-backed odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоBank of Russia decision in June?
Bank of Russia decision in June?
Decrease 66%
No Change 26%
Increase 10%
Decrease
60%
No Change
26%
Increase
10%
Decrease 66%
No Change 26%
Increase 10%
Decrease
60%
No Change
26%
Increase
10%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at 61.5% implied probability for the June 7 decision, primarily fueled by April CPI inflation easing to 8.3% year-over-year—above the 4% target but down from March peaks—amid stabilizing ruble exchange rates and moderating wartime demand pressures. After holding at 16% since October amid high inflation, recent data signals potential disinflation, tilting sentiment toward the first cut since September 2022. No change lingers at 26% due to fiscal spending risks, while an increase at 10.5% recedes as unlikely absent renewed price surges. May CPI release this week could recalibrate these capital-backed odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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