**Brazil's central bank is positioned for a likely 25-basis-point Selic cut at its June 17 meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting the ongoing easing cycle amid mixed inflation signals.** The benchmark rate stands at 14.50% following the April reduction, as Copom has calibrated policy meeting-by-meeting since the March start of easing. June 3 communications noted demand-driven pressures, resilient services inflation, tight labor markets, and wages outpacing productivity, yet these have not derailed cut expectations given moderating growth and the need to assess transmission amid Middle East-related energy shocks. Inflation forecasts for 2026 remain above the 3% target midpoint, with de-anchored expectations prompting caution, but traders price the path of gradual 25 bp adjustments as the baseline. Key near-term catalysts include the June 15 Focus survey and any pre-meeting remarks that could shift the balance between the 81.5% decrease odds and the 18.6% probability of a hold.