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Мир·Глобальные выборы

Какие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?

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Мир·Глобальные выборы

Какие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?

$237,181 Объем

4 окт. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$237,181 Объем

Polymarket

Флавио Болсонару

$15,276 Объем

83%

Луис Инасиу Лула да Силва

$102,028 Объем

75%

Фернанду Аддад

$33,208 Объем

13%

Тарсисио де Фрейтас

$59,385 Объем

5%

Мишель Болсонару

$17,998 Объем

4%

Жаир Болсонару

$9,285 Объем

4%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads recent first-round polls for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election, typically at 38-45% against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 36-40%, with other candidates like Tarcísio de Freitas and Ronaldo Caiado trailing far behind at 3-6%, positioning the top two as frontrunners to advance to a potential October 25 runoff under Brazil's two-round system requiring over 50% for an outright win. Late March surveys from Paraná Pesquisas, AtlasIntel, and BTG Pactual/Nexus show narrowing margins and tied simulated runoffs at 46% apiece, reflecting Flávio Bolsonaro's momentum amid right-wing consolidation after Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal and PSD's endorsement of Caiado. Traders monitor economic indicators, campaign debates, and regional voting blocs in this closely contested race, with no candidate near a first-round majority.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$237,181
Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads recent first-round polls for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election, typically at 38-45% against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 36-40%, with other candidates like Tarcísio de Freitas and Ronaldo Caiado trailing far behind at 3-6%, positioning the top two as frontrunners to advance to a potential October 25 runoff under Brazil's two-round system requiring over 50% for an outright win. Late March surveys from Paraná Pesquisas, AtlasIntel, and BTG Pactual/Nexus show narrowing margins and tied simulated runoffs at 46% apiece, reflecting Flávio Bolsonaro's momentum amid right-wing consolidation after Ratinho Júnior's withdrawal and PSD's endorsement of Caiado. Traders monitor economic indicators, campaign debates, and regional voting blocs in this closely contested race, with no candidate near a first-round majority.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$237,181
Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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На сегодняшний день «Какие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $237.2K с момента запуска рынка Sep 18, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

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Текущий фаворит для «Какие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?» — «Флавио Болсонару» с 83%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 83%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Луис Инасиу Лула да Силва» с 75%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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