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Мир·Глобальные выборы

Какие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?

Market icon
Мир·Глобальные выборы

Какие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?

$236,361 Объем

4 окт. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$236,361 Объем

Polymarket

Флавио Болсонару

$15,119 Объем

82%

Луис Инасиу Лула да Силва

$101,825 Объем

75%

Фернанду Аддад

$33,152 Объем

19%

Мишель Болсонару

$17,644 Объем

5%

Тарсисио де Фрейтас

$59,335 Объем

4%

Жаир Болсонару

$9,285 Объем

3%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead recent opinion polls for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote, positioning them as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff under the system's top-two rule unless one secures over 50%. Late March surveys from AtlasIntel and others show Flávio Bolsonaro edging or tying Lula in simulated runoffs—47.6% to 46.6% in one—reflecting a sharp tightening from Lula's double-digit leads in December 2025 amid economic pressures and voter fatigue. On March 31, Lula confirmed Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, bolstering his center-left coalition, while Flávio benefits from right-wing backing including São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. Fragmented fields with candidates like Ratinho Jr. and Romeu Zema trailing far behind heighten coalition dynamics, with trader consensus tracking volatile polling ahead of registration deadlines.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$236,361
Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro lead recent opinion polls for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential vote, positioning them as frontrunners to advance to the October 25 runoff under the system's top-two rule unless one secures over 50%. Late March surveys from AtlasIntel and others show Flávio Bolsonaro edging or tying Lula in simulated runoffs—47.6% to 46.6% in one—reflecting a sharp tightening from Lula's double-digit leads in December 2025 amid economic pressures and voter fatigue. On March 31, Lula confirmed Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, bolstering his center-left coalition, while Flávio benefits from right-wing backing including São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas. Fragmented fields with candidates like Ratinho Jr. and Romeu Zema trailing far behind heighten coalition dynamics, with trader consensus tracking volatile polling ahead of registration deadlines.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$236,361
Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Текущий фаворит для «Какие кандидаты выйдут во второй тур президентских выборов в Бразилии?» — «Флавио Болсонару» с 82%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 82%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Луис Инасиу Лула да Силва» с 75%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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