Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 85% probability of Democrats flipping the House in the 2026 midterms, elevating "Democrats Sweep" to the top outcome at 48.5% amid historical midterm losses for the president's party—averaging 26 House seats since 1950—and recent generic ballot leads, such as Emerson's January poll showing Democrats at 48% versus Republicans' 42%. The Senate remains a toss-up, with Republicans defending a narrow 53-47 majority but facing competitive races in states like Maine and Georgia per Cook Political Report ratings updated this month. "R Senate, D House" at 36.5% reflects this dynamic, while low odds on Republican Sweep stem from vulnerable GOP-held seats and early primary results signaling Democratic momentum, including Texas Senate developments. Upcoming candidate filings and polls through spring could shift balances in battleground districts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоБаланс сил: промежуточные выборы 2026 года
Баланс сил: промежуточные выборы 2026 года
Демократы победили во всех округах 49%
R Сенат, D Палата представителей 37%
Республиканцы победили во всех округах 15%
Демократы в Сенате, Республиканцы в Палате представителей <1%
$4,172,015 Объем
$4,172,015 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Заработай 4 %
Демократы победили во всех округах
49%
Демократы в Сенате, Республиканцы в Палате представителей
1%
R Сенат, D Палата представителей
37%
Республиканцы победили во всех округах
15%
Другое
1%
Демократы победили во всех округах 49%
R Сенат, D Палата представителей 37%
Республиканцы победили во всех округах 15%
Демократы в Сенате, Республиканцы в Палате представителей <1%
$4,172,015 Объем
$4,172,015 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Заработай 4 %
Демократы победили во всех округах
$1,115,445 Объем
49%
Демократы в Сенате, Республиканцы в Палате представителей
$578,075 Объем
1%
R Сенат, D Палата представителей
$800,244 Объем
37%
Республиканцы победили во всех округах
$881,126 Объем
15%
Другое
$797,125 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 85% probability of Democrats flipping the House in the 2026 midterms, elevating "Democrats Sweep" to the top outcome at 48.5% amid historical midterm losses for the president's party—averaging 26 House seats since 1950—and recent generic ballot leads, such as Emerson's January poll showing Democrats at 48% versus Republicans' 42%. The Senate remains a toss-up, with Republicans defending a narrow 53-47 majority but facing competitive races in states like Maine and Georgia per Cook Political Report ratings updated this month. "R Senate, D House" at 36.5% reflects this dynamic, while low odds on Republican Sweep stem from vulnerable GOP-held seats and early primary results signaling Democratic momentum, including Texas Senate developments. Upcoming candidate filings and polls through spring could shift balances in battleground districts.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Объем
$4,172,015Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 85% probability of Democrats flipping the House in the 2026 midterms, elevating "Democrats Sweep" to the top outcome at 48.5% amid historical midterm losses for the president's party—averaging 26 House seats since 1950—and recent generic ballot leads, such as Emerson's January poll showing Democrats at 48% versus Republicans' 42%. The Senate remains a toss-up, with Republicans defending a narrow 53-47 majority but facing competitive races in states like Maine and Georgia per Cook Political Report ratings updated this month. "R Senate, D House" at 36.5% reflects this dynamic, while low odds on Republican Sweep stem from vulnerable GOP-held seats and early primary results signaling Democratic momentum, including Texas Senate developments. Upcoming candidate filings and polls through spring could shift balances in battleground districts.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$4,172,015Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 85% probability of Democrats flipping the House in the 2026 midterms, elevating "Democrats Sweep" to the top outcome at 48.5% amid historical midterm losses for the president's party—averaging 26 House seats since 1950—and recent generic ballot leads, such as Emerson's January poll showing Democrats at 48% versus Republicans' 42%. The Senate remains a toss-up, with Republicans defending a narrow 53-47 majority but facing competitive races in states like Maine and Georgia per Cook Political Report ratings updated this month. "R Senate, D House" at 36.5% reflects this dynamic, while low odds on Republican Sweep stem from vulnerable GOP-held seats and early primary results signaling Democratic momentum, including Texas Senate developments. Upcoming candidate filings and polls through spring could shift balances in battleground districts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы