Trader consensus prices a tight Texas Senate Republican primary runoff margin between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton, with Paxton 9%+ victory at 25% slightly edging Cornyn's equivalent at 21%, reflecting deep GOP factional splits between establishment incumbency and MAGA-aligned base fervor. Paxton's recent escalation of attacks on Cornyn—labeling him insufficiently loyal to Trump amid the collapsed bipartisan border bill—has fueled base enthusiasm, while Cornyn's fundraising dominance and incumbency advantages keep him competitive in early polling averages showing single-digit leads. No major endorsements or debates have emerged to separate them, but Trump's potential intervention, primary turnout dynamics, or Paxton's legal overhang could tip the balance before the March 2026 vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоPaxton 9%+ 24.7%
Cornyn 9%+ 21%
Cornyn <3% 11.2%
Cornyn 3–6% 10%
$19,596 Объем
$19,596 Объем
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
25%
Paxton 6–9%
6%
Paxton 3–6%
10%
Paxton <3%
8%
Cornyn <3%
11%
Cornyn 3–6%
10%
Cornyn 6–9%
8%
Cornyn 9%+
21%
Paxton 9%+ 24.7%
Cornyn 9%+ 21%
Cornyn <3% 11.2%
Cornyn 3–6% 10%
$19,596 Объем
$19,596 Объем
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
$5,105 Объем
25%
Paxton 6–9%
$3,652 Объем
6%
Paxton 3–6%
$2,818 Объем
10%
Paxton <3%
$4,800 Объем
8%
Cornyn <3%
$0 Объем
11%
Cornyn 3–6%
$0 Объем
10%
Cornyn 6–9%
$3,221 Объем
8%
Cornyn 9%+
$0 Объем
21%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus prices a tight Texas Senate Republican primary runoff margin between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton, with Paxton 9%+ victory at 25% slightly edging Cornyn's equivalent at 21%, reflecting deep GOP factional splits between establishment incumbency and MAGA-aligned base fervor. Paxton's recent escalation of attacks on Cornyn—labeling him insufficiently loyal to Trump amid the collapsed bipartisan border bill—has fueled base enthusiasm, while Cornyn's fundraising dominance and incumbency advantages keep him competitive in early polling averages showing single-digit leads. No major endorsements or debates have emerged to separate them, but Trump's potential intervention, primary turnout dynamics, or Paxton's legal overhang could tip the balance before the March 2026 vote.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Открытие рынка: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Объем
$19,596Дата окончания
May 25, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus prices a tight Texas Senate Republican primary runoff margin between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton, with Paxton 9%+ victory at 25% slightly edging Cornyn's equivalent at 21%, reflecting deep GOP factional splits between establishment incumbency and MAGA-aligned base fervor. Paxton's recent escalation of attacks on Cornyn—labeling him insufficiently loyal to Trump amid the collapsed bipartisan border bill—has fueled base enthusiasm, while Cornyn's fundraising dominance and incumbency advantages keep him competitive in early polling averages showing single-digit leads. No major endorsements or debates have emerged to separate them, but Trump's potential intervention, primary turnout dynamics, or Paxton's legal overhang could tip the balance before the March 2026 vote.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$19,596Дата окончания
May 25, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices a tight Texas Senate Republican primary runoff margin between incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton, with Paxton 9%+ victory at 25% slightly edging Cornyn's equivalent at 21%, reflecting deep GOP factional splits between establishment incumbency and MAGA-aligned base fervor. Paxton's recent escalation of attacks on Cornyn—labeling him insufficiently loyal to Trump amid the collapsed bipartisan border bill—has fueled base enthusiasm, while Cornyn's fundraising dominance and incumbency advantages keep him competitive in early polling averages showing single-digit leads. No major endorsements or debates have emerged to separate them, but Trump's potential intervention, primary turnout dynamics, or Paxton's legal overhang could tip the balance before the March 2026 vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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