Following the March 3 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary, where neither secured a majority, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to the May 26 runoff, with traders pricing Paxton as the clear frontrunner at 63.5% implied probability. Recent polls show Paxton pulling ahead, driven by his appeal to the conservative base through aggressive stances on border security and immigration enforcement, contrasting Cornyn's establishment image despite the senator's massive $70 million-plus ad spending advantage. Cornyn has countered with healthcare endorsements and attacks on Paxton's office over a January staff travel inquiry, but no Trump endorsement has materialized. Other candidates like Wesley Hunt, Beth Van Duyne, and Dawn Buckingham received negligible support and did not advance.