Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican primary runoff after neither secured a March 3 majority, while state Rep. James Talarico won the Democratic nomination over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, setting up a general election contest on November 3. Recent polls show tight matchups, with Cornyn leading Talarico 45-44% on average and Paxton edging her 46-45%, yet trader consensus tilts toward Republicans at 55.5% implied probability amid Texas' GOP lean, historical incumbent advantages, and base turnout edges in this non-swing state. Paxton's strength in runoff surveys (leading 46-41%) and President Trump's pending endorsement add uncertainty, but unified Republican turnout could tip the balance in battleground dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Сенат Техаса
Победитель выборов в Сенат Техаса
$150,441 Объем
$150,441 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканец
56%
Демократ
44%
$150,441 Объем
$150,441 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканец
$83,215 Объем
56%
Демократ
$67,226 Объем
44%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican primary runoff after neither secured a March 3 majority, while state Rep. James Talarico won the Democratic nomination over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, setting up a general election contest on November 3. Recent polls show tight matchups, with Cornyn leading Talarico 45-44% on average and Paxton edging her 46-45%, yet trader consensus tilts toward Republicans at 55.5% implied probability amid Texas' GOP lean, historical incumbent advantages, and base turnout edges in this non-swing state. Paxton's strength in runoff surveys (leading 46-41%) and President Trump's pending endorsement add uncertainty, but unified Republican turnout could tip the balance in battleground dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
Объем
$150,441Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican primary runoff after neither secured a March 3 majority, while state Rep. James Talarico won the Democratic nomination over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, setting up a general election contest on November 3. Recent polls show tight matchups, with Cornyn leading Talarico 45-44% on average and Paxton edging her 46-45%, yet trader consensus tilts toward Republicans at 55.5% implied probability amid Texas' GOP lean, historical incumbent advantages, and base turnout edges in this non-swing state. Paxton's strength in runoff surveys (leading 46-41%) and President Trump's pending endorsement add uncertainty, but unified Republican turnout could tip the balance in battleground dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$150,441Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican primary runoff after neither secured a March 3 majority, while state Rep. James Talarico won the Democratic nomination over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, setting up a general election contest on November 3. Recent polls show tight matchups, with Cornyn leading Talarico 45-44% on average and Paxton edging her 46-45%, yet trader consensus tilts toward Republicans at 55.5% implied probability amid Texas' GOP lean, historical incumbent advantages, and base turnout edges in this non-swing state. Paxton's strength in runoff surveys (leading 46-41%) and President Trump's pending endorsement add uncertainty, but unified Republican turnout could tip the balance in battleground dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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