Trader consensus favors Republicans at 58% implied probability to retain the Texas Senate seat in November, reflecting the state's consistent GOP dominance in statewide races and the incumbency advantage of Sen. John Cornyn, despite his primary challenge. The March 3 primaries saw state Rep. James Talarico secure the Democratic nomination over Rep. Jasmine Crockett amid record Democratic turnout, while Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 GOP runoff after neither reached a majority. Recent polls, including a March 20 internal survey showing Talarico narrowly leading both Republicans in hypotheticals, indicate a competitive race, but traders weigh Texas's Republican lean, superior GOP turnout in generals, and Paxton's strong CPAC straw poll support (67%) as key edges. Upcoming runoff dynamics and fundraising could shift odds further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Сенат Техаса
Победитель выборов в Сенат Техаса
$151,632 Объем
$151,632 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканец
58%
Демократ
43%
$151,632 Объем
$151,632 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканец
$83,914 Объем
58%
Демократ
$67,717 Объем
43%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors Republicans at 58% implied probability to retain the Texas Senate seat in November, reflecting the state's consistent GOP dominance in statewide races and the incumbency advantage of Sen. John Cornyn, despite his primary challenge. The March 3 primaries saw state Rep. James Talarico secure the Democratic nomination over Rep. Jasmine Crockett amid record Democratic turnout, while Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 GOP runoff after neither reached a majority. Recent polls, including a March 20 internal survey showing Talarico narrowly leading both Republicans in hypotheticals, indicate a competitive race, but traders weigh Texas's Republican lean, superior GOP turnout in generals, and Paxton's strong CPAC straw poll support (67%) as key edges. Upcoming runoff dynamics and fundraising could shift odds further.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
Объем
$151,632Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors Republicans at 58% implied probability to retain the Texas Senate seat in November, reflecting the state's consistent GOP dominance in statewide races and the incumbency advantage of Sen. John Cornyn, despite his primary challenge. The March 3 primaries saw state Rep. James Talarico secure the Democratic nomination over Rep. Jasmine Crockett amid record Democratic turnout, while Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 GOP runoff after neither reached a majority. Recent polls, including a March 20 internal survey showing Talarico narrowly leading both Republicans in hypotheticals, indicate a competitive race, but traders weigh Texas's Republican lean, superior GOP turnout in generals, and Paxton's strong CPAC straw poll support (67%) as key edges. Upcoming runoff dynamics and fundraising could shift odds further.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$151,632Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Republicans at 58% implied probability to retain the Texas Senate seat in November, reflecting the state's consistent GOP dominance in statewide races and the incumbency advantage of Sen. John Cornyn, despite his primary challenge. The March 3 primaries saw state Rep. James Talarico secure the Democratic nomination over Rep. Jasmine Crockett amid record Democratic turnout, while Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 GOP runoff after neither reached a majority. Recent polls, including a March 20 internal survey showing Talarico narrowly leading both Republicans in hypotheticals, indicate a competitive race, but traders weigh Texas's Republican lean, superior GOP turnout in generals, and Paxton's strong CPAC straw poll support (67%) as key edges. Upcoming runoff dynamics and fundraising could shift odds further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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