Andy Burnham holds an 82% implied probability in the Makerfield by-election due to his established profile as Greater Manchester mayor, Labour Party endorsement, and the constituency's historical Labour dominance. The seat became vacant after incumbent Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 specifically to enable Burnham's candidacy and potential Labour leadership challenge. Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, at 16.5%, benefits from national polling trends favoring the party on cost-of-living concerns and anti-incumbent sentiment, with recent local surveys showing a narrower gap than historical patterns suggest. Other candidates, including Restore Britain's Rebecca Shepherd, trail significantly. The 18 June vote will determine entry to the Parliamentary Labour Party and influence subsequent leadership dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоMakerfield by-election Winner
Makerfield by-election Winner
Andy Burnham 82%
Robert Kenyon 17%
Ребекка Шеперд 2.6%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$2,234,435 Объем
$2,234,435 Объем
Andy Burnham
82%
Robert Kenyon
17%
Ребекка Шеперд
3%
Simon Finkelstein
<1%
Maria Deery
<1%
John Skipworth
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
<1%
Andy Burnham 82%
Robert Kenyon 17%
Ребекка Шеперд 2.6%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$2,234,435 Объем
$2,234,435 Объем
Andy Burnham
82%
Robert Kenyon
17%
Ребекка Шеперд
3%
Simon Finkelstein
<1%
Maria Deery
<1%
John Skipworth
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Открытие рынка: May 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Andy Burnham holds an 82% implied probability in the Makerfield by-election due to his established profile as Greater Manchester mayor, Labour Party endorsement, and the constituency's historical Labour dominance. The seat became vacant after incumbent Josh Simons resigned in May 2026 specifically to enable Burnham's candidacy and potential Labour leadership challenge. Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, at 16.5%, benefits from national polling trends favoring the party on cost-of-living concerns and anti-incumbent sentiment, with recent local surveys showing a narrower gap than historical patterns suggest. Other candidates, including Restore Britain's Rebecca Shepherd, trail significantly. The 18 June vote will determine entry to the Parliamentary Labour Party and influence subsequent leadership dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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