In the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for U.S. House, all incumbents who defended their seats cruised to victory with substantial margins—such as Rep. Mike Quigley (65%), Sean Casten (76%), Brad Schneider (79%), and Nikki Budzinski (76%)—reflecting entrenched incumbency advantages, limited challenger fundraising, and unified party support in safe blue districts. No credible threats emerged despite national progressive pushback in some open seats like IL-09, where retirements created contests but spared sitting members. Traders' 97.8% consensus on "No" embodies skin-in-the-game confidence in these results, awaiting routine certification. Only an unprecedented recount demand in a non-close race or rare disqualification could shift odds, though none are pending.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$413 Объем
$413 Объем
17 мар. 2026 г.
$413 Объем
$413 Объем
17 мар. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for U.S. House, all incumbents who defended their seats cruised to victory with substantial margins—such as Rep. Mike Quigley (65%), Sean Casten (76%), Brad Schneider (79%), and Nikki Budzinski (76%)—reflecting entrenched incumbency advantages, limited challenger fundraising, and unified party support in safe blue districts. No credible threats emerged despite national progressive pushback in some open seats like IL-09, where retirements created contests but spared sitting members. Traders' 97.8% consensus on "No" embodies skin-in-the-game confidence in these results, awaiting routine certification. Only an unprecedented recount demand in a non-close race or rare disqualification could shift odds, though none are pending.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Объем
$413Дата окончания
17 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.In the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for U.S. House, all incumbents who defended their seats cruised to victory with substantial margins—such as Rep. Mike Quigley (65%), Sean Casten (76%), Brad Schneider (79%), and Nikki Budzinski (76%)—reflecting entrenched incumbency advantages, limited challenger fundraising, and unified party support in safe blue districts. No credible threats emerged despite national progressive pushback in some open seats like IL-09, where retirements created contests but spared sitting members. Traders' 97.8% consensus on "No" embodies skin-in-the-game confidence in these results, awaiting routine certification. Only an unprecedented recount demand in a non-close race or rare disqualification could shift odds, though none are pending.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any incumbent member of the US House of Representatives loses a Democratic primary for re-election to their House seat in the upcoming Illinois primary elections, scheduled for March 17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only losses by incumbents who participate in the primary as a formal and current candidate will count. Incumbents choosing not to run for re-election, withdrawing before the primary, being removed from the ballot before voting begins, or otherwise not participating in the primary as a candidate will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$413Дата окончания
17 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the March 17, 2026, Illinois Democratic primaries for U.S. House, all incumbents who defended their seats cruised to victory with substantial margins—such as Rep. Mike Quigley (65%), Sean Casten (76%), Brad Schneider (79%), and Nikki Budzinski (76%)—reflecting entrenched incumbency advantages, limited challenger fundraising, and unified party support in safe blue districts. No credible threats emerged despite national progressive pushback in some open seats like IL-09, where retirements created contests but spared sitting members. Traders' 97.8% consensus on "No" embodies skin-in-the-game confidence in these results, awaiting routine certification. Only an unprecedented recount demand in a non-close race or rare disqualification could shift odds, though none are pending.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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