Liberal candidate Doly Begum commands 99% trader consensus in the Scarborough Southwest federal by-election, reflecting the riding's strong Liberal performance in the 2025 general election where the party captured 61% of the vote, coupled with Begum's incumbency advantage as the outgoing Ontario NDP MPP for the provincial equivalent who resigned to run federally. A March Mainstreet Research poll indicated a decisive Liberal lead, bolstered by Prime Minister Mark Carney's recent endorsement and active campaigning amid advance polls open through April 6 ahead of election day on April 13. While low-turnout by-elections typically favor the incumbent party, a late scandal, surge in Conservative support for Diana Filipova, or NDP mobilization behind Fatima Shaban could theoretically challenge this positioning, though historical precedents suggest minimal risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоScarborough Southwest By-Election Winner
Scarborough Southwest By-Election Winner
Doly Begum 99.0%
Diana Filipova <1%
April Francisco <1%
Peter Koubakis <1%
Doly Begum
99%
Diana Filipova
<1%
April Francisco
<1%
Peter Koubakis
<1%
Fatima Shaban
<1%
Pooja Malhotra
<1%
Lyall Sanders
<1%
David Vedova
<1%
Doly Begum 99.0%
Diana Filipova <1%
April Francisco <1%
Peter Koubakis <1%
Doly Begum
99%
Diana Filipova
<1%
April Francisco
<1%
Peter Koubakis
<1%
Fatima Shaban
<1%
Pooja Malhotra
<1%
Lyall Sanders
<1%
David Vedova
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Открытие рынка: Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Scarborough Southwest, Ontario seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Liberal candidate Doly Begum commands 99% trader consensus in the Scarborough Southwest federal by-election, reflecting the riding's strong Liberal performance in the 2025 general election where the party captured 61% of the vote, coupled with Begum's incumbency advantage as the outgoing Ontario NDP MPP for the provincial equivalent who resigned to run federally. A March Mainstreet Research poll indicated a decisive Liberal lead, bolstered by Prime Minister Mark Carney's recent endorsement and active campaigning amid advance polls open through April 6 ahead of election day on April 13. While low-turnout by-elections typically favor the incumbent party, a late scandal, surge in Conservative support for Diana Filipova, or NDP mobilization behind Fatima Shaban could theoretically challenge this positioning, though historical precedents suggest minimal risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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