Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors PL securing the most seats in Brazil's 2026 Senate election, with 66.5% implied probability, driven by the party's dominant gains in the October 2024 municipal elections, where it won numerous mayoralties and boosted Bolsonaro-aligned candidates amid President Lula's sagging approval ratings around 50%. PP trails at 18.4%, benefiting from centro-direita alliances and regional strongholds, while PSB and MDB hover at 13-12% on incumbency advantages in the 27 contested seats. Recent polling from Datafolha and Quaest reinforces PL's momentum from 2022 congressional surges, though coalition shifts and economic headwinds could alter trajectories ahead of candidate filings in 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСледующие выборы в Сенат Бразилии: большинство мест
Следующие выборы в Сенат Бразилии: большинство мест
PL 76%
БДП (MDB) 17.0%
UNIÃO 8.8%
PDT 7.4%

PL
67%

БДП (MDB)
12%

UNIÃO
9%

PDT
7%

PSDB
5%

PODEMOS
5%

PT
7%

PSB
13%

ПП
18%

PSD
2%

NOVO
6%

РЕСПУБЛИКАНОС
1%
PL 76%
БДП (MDB) 17.0%
UNIÃO 8.8%
PDT 7.4%

PL
67%

БДП (MDB)
12%

UNIÃO
9%

PDT
7%

PSDB
5%

PODEMOS
5%

PT
7%

PSB
13%

ПП
18%

PSD
2%

NOVO
6%

РЕСПУБЛИКАНОС
1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election.
All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).
Открытие рынка: Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors PL securing the most seats in Brazil's 2026 Senate election, with 66.5% implied probability, driven by the party's dominant gains in the October 2024 municipal elections, where it won numerous mayoralties and boosted Bolsonaro-aligned candidates amid President Lula's sagging approval ratings around 50%. PP trails at 18.4%, benefiting from centro-direita alliances and regional strongholds, while PSB and MDB hover at 13-12% on incumbency advantages in the 27 contested seats. Recent polling from Datafolha and Quaest reinforces PL's momentum from 2022 congressional surges, though coalition shifts and economic headwinds could alter trajectories ahead of candidate filings in 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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