Recent opinion polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with 38–42% support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 29–35%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos and others in single digits amid sizable undecided and null shares. Under Brazil’s two-round system, a first-round outright win requires more than 50% of valid votes. The persistent gap below this threshold reflects vote fragmentation across multiple candidates and limited consolidation even after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son. May reports linking Flávio Bolsonaro to a banking scandal further weighed on right-wing consolidation without producing measurable shifts toward a majority for any contender. Historical patterns from the 2022 contest, where neither finalist exceeded 50% in round one, align with current polling trends that sustain trader pricing for a runoff. No late-campaign developments have narrowed the distance to an outright majority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$75,484 Объем
$75,484 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Да
$75,484 Объем
$75,484 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent opinion polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with 38–42% support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 29–35%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos and others in single digits amid sizable undecided and null shares. Under Brazil’s two-round system, a first-round outright win requires more than 50% of valid votes. The persistent gap below this threshold reflects vote fragmentation across multiple candidates and limited consolidation even after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son. May reports linking Flávio Bolsonaro to a banking scandal further weighed on right-wing consolidation without producing measurable shifts toward a majority for any contender. Historical patterns from the 2022 contest, where neither finalist exceeded 50% in round one, align with current polling trends that sustain trader pricing for a runoff. No late-campaign developments have narrowed the distance to an outright majority.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Объем
$75,484Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent opinion polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with 38–42% support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 29–35%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos and others in single digits amid sizable undecided and null shares. Under Brazil’s two-round system, a first-round outright win requires more than 50% of valid votes. The persistent gap below this threshold reflects vote fragmentation across multiple candidates and limited consolidation even after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son. May reports linking Flávio Bolsonaro to a banking scandal further weighed on right-wing consolidation without producing measurable shifts toward a majority for any contender. Historical patterns from the 2022 contest, where neither finalist exceeded 50% in round one, align with current polling trends that sustain trader pricing for a runoff. No late-campaign developments have narrowed the distance to an outright majority.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$75,484Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 presidential election show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with 38–42% support, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 29–35%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos and others in single digits amid sizable undecided and null shares. Under Brazil’s two-round system, a first-round outright win requires more than 50% of valid votes. The persistent gap below this threshold reflects vote fragmentation across multiple candidates and limited consolidation even after Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son. May reports linking Flávio Bolsonaro to a banking scandal further weighed on right-wing consolidation without producing measurable shifts toward a majority for any contender. Historical patterns from the 2022 contest, where neither finalist exceeded 50% in round one, align with current polling trends that sustain trader pricing for a runoff. No late-campaign developments have narrowed the distance to an outright majority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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