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Мир·Глобальные выборы

Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы

icon for Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы
Мир·Глобальные выборы

Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы

Лула да Силва <5% 30%

Флавиу Болсонару <5% 21%

Лула да Силва 5–10% 18%

Флавио Болсонару 10%+ 7.1%

Polymarket

$223,670 Объем

Лула да Силва <5% 30%

Флавиу Болсонару <5% 21%

Лула да Силва 5–10% 18%

Флавио Болсонару 10%+ 7.1%

Polymarket

$223,670 Объем

icon for Лула да Силва 15%+

Лула да Силва 15%+

$3,991 Объем

6%

icon for Лула да Силва 10–15%

Лула да Силва 10–15%

$1,917 Объем

5%

icon for Лула да Силва 5–10%

Лула да Силва 5–10%

$6,298 Объем

23%

icon for Лула да Силва <5%

Лула да Силва <5%

$2,248 Объем

32%

icon for Флавио Болсонару 10%+

Флавио Болсонару 10%+

$1,244 Объем

18%

icon for Флавио Болсонару 5–10%

Флавио Болсонару 5–10%

$1,518 Объем

10%

icon for Флавиу Болсонару <5%

Флавиу Болсонару <5%

$3,086 Объем

21%

icon for Победа Ренана Сантоса

Победа Ренана Сантоса

$199,434 Объем

5%

icon for Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса

Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса

$880 Объем

<1%

icon for Победа Ратиньо Жуниора

Победа Ратиньо Жуниора

$1,405 Объем

1%

icon for Другой

Другой

$1,647 Объем

5%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Quaest, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel show incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by slim margins in first-round scenarios—typically 37-46% for Lula versus 30-43% for Flávio—amid voter fragmentation from rising anti-establishment challenger Renan Santos of Partido Missão and lower-tier contenders like Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas. Lula's approval rating has fallen to 44% against 51% disapproval, fueling Flávio's surge on his father's conservative base and anti-incumbent sentiment, keeping trader consensus on a tight race with Lula's narrow under-5% victory at 31% implied probability. Separation could arise from upcoming debates, economic data, or scandals shifting undecided voters before the October 4 first round.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$223,670
Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Quaest, Datafolha, and AtlasIntel show incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by slim margins in first-round scenarios—typically 37-46% for Lula versus 30-43% for Flávio—amid voter fragmentation from rising anti-establishment challenger Renan Santos of Partido Missão and lower-tier contenders like Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas. Lula's approval rating has fallen to 44% against 51% disapproval, fueling Flávio's surge on his father's conservative base and anti-incumbent sentiment, keeping trader consensus on a tight race with Lula's narrow under-5% victory at 31% implied probability. Separation could arise from upcoming debates, economic data, or scandals shifting undecided voters before the October 4 first round.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$223,670
Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 11 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Лула да Силва <5%» с 32%, за ним следует «Лула да Силва 5–10%» с 23%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 32¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 32%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $223.7K с момента запуска рынка Feb 11, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы», просмотри 11 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы» — «Лула да Силва <5%» с 32%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 32%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Лула да Силва 5–10%» с 23%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.