Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46% to 43% in first-round voting intentions, with MBL leader Renan Santos at 5%, fueling trader consensus on a sub-5% Lula margin at 37% implied probability amid the tightest race yet. Flávio Bolsonaro's surge—closing prior double-digit gaps via his father's endorsement and right-wing consolidation—elevates his own sub-5% victory odds to 25.5%, while Lula's 5-10% margin trades at 17.5%. Fragmented fields including Governors Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas cap outright wins low, as no candidate nears 50% needed to avoid an October 4 runoff. Upcoming polls and campaign momentum could tip the balance in this polarized contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПервый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы
Первый тур президентских выборов в Бразилии: предел победы
Лула да Силва <5% 37%
Флавиу Болсонару <5% 26%
Лула да Силва 5–10% 18%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10% 7.8%
$13,864 Объем
$13,864 Объем
Oct 4, 2026
Лула да Силва 15%+
6%
Лула да Силва 10–15%
3%
Лула да Силва 5–10%
18%
Лула да Силва <5%
37%
Флавио Болсонару 10%+
5%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10%
8%
Флавиу Болсонару <5%
26%
Победа Ренана Сантоса
6%
Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса
2%
Победа Ратиньо Жуниора
3%
Другой
4%
Лула да Силва <5% 37%
Флавиу Болсонару <5% 26%
Лула да Силва 5–10% 18%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10% 7.8%
$13,864 Объем
$13,864 Объем
Oct 4, 2026
Лула да Силва 15%+
$3,547 Объем
6%
Лула да Силва 10–15%
$1,310 Объем
3%
Лула да Силва 5–10%
$1,702 Объем
18%
Лула да Силва <5%
$1,560 Объем
37%
Флавио Болсонару 10%+
$675 Объем
5%
Флавио Болсонару 5–10%
$678 Объем
8%
Флавиу Болсонару <5%
$1,430 Объем
26%
Победа Ренана Сантоса
$808 Объем
6%
Победа Тарсилиу де Фрейтаса
$521 Объем
2%
Победа Ратиньо Жуниора
$808 Объем
3%
Другой
$825 Объем
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46% to 43% in first-round voting intentions, with MBL leader Renan Santos at 5%, fueling trader consensus on a sub-5% Lula margin at 37% implied probability amid the tightest race yet. Flávio Bolsonaro's surge—closing prior double-digit gaps via his father's endorsement and right-wing consolidation—elevates his own sub-5% victory odds to 25.5%, while Lula's 5-10% margin trades at 17.5%. Fragmented fields including Governors Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas cap outright wins low, as no candidate nears 50% needed to avoid an October 4 runoff. Upcoming polls and campaign momentum could tip the balance in this polarized contest.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Открытие рынка: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Объем
$13,864Дата окончания
Oct 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46% to 43% in first-round voting intentions, with MBL leader Renan Santos at 5%, fueling trader consensus on a sub-5% Lula margin at 37% implied probability amid the tightest race yet. Flávio Bolsonaro's surge—closing prior double-digit gaps via his father's endorsement and right-wing consolidation—elevates his own sub-5% victory odds to 25.5%, while Lula's 5-10% margin trades at 17.5%. Fragmented fields including Governors Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas cap outright wins low, as no candidate nears 50% needed to avoid an October 4 runoff. Upcoming polls and campaign momentum could tip the balance in this polarized contest.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Объем
$13,864Дата окончания
Oct 4, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46% to 43% in first-round voting intentions, with MBL leader Renan Santos at 5%, fueling trader consensus on a sub-5% Lula margin at 37% implied probability amid the tightest race yet. Flávio Bolsonaro's surge—closing prior double-digit gaps via his father's endorsement and right-wing consolidation—elevates his own sub-5% victory odds to 25.5%, while Lula's 5-10% margin trades at 17.5%. Fragmented fields including Governors Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas cap outright wins low, as no candidate nears 50% needed to avoid an October 4 runoff. Upcoming polls and campaign momentum could tip the balance in this polarized contest.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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