Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Rafael López Aliaga as the clear frontrunner to lead Peru's 2026 presidential election first round, with 55% implied probability, driven by his lead in recent Ipsos and Datum polls (around 12-15% support) amid voter frustration over crime, corruption, and economic stagnation boosting right-wing populists. Jorge Nieto (18.5%) and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (17.5%) follow as military-affiliated conservatives gaining traction in security-focused surveys, while the field remains fragmented with no strong leftist or centrist contender emerging. Recent developments include López Aliaga's rising approval as Lima mayor and candidate filings opening, heightening speculation ahead of primaries and official registration deadlines in early 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоRafael López Aliaga 50%
Jorge Nieto 18%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 17%
Yonhy Lescano 16%

Rafael López Aliaga
53%

Jorge Nieto
18%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
17%

Yonhy Lescano
16%

Roberto Chiabra
16%

José Williams
16%

Fernando Olivera
16%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
16%

Marisol Pérez Tello
16%

Mario Vizcarra
16%

César Acuña
16%

José Luna
16%

Carlos Álvarez
16%

Alfonso López Chau
16%

Enrique Valderrama
16%

Ricardo Belmont
16%

Mesías Guevara
16%

Fiorella Molinelli
15%

Wolfgang Grozo
12%

Vladimir Cerrón
12%

Carlos Espá
12%

Keiko Fujimori
12%

George Forsyth
6%
Rafael López Aliaga 50%
Jorge Nieto 18%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino 17%
Yonhy Lescano 16%

Rafael López Aliaga
53%

Jorge Nieto
18%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
17%

Yonhy Lescano
16%

Roberto Chiabra
16%

José Williams
16%

Fernando Olivera
16%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
16%

Marisol Pérez Tello
16%

Mario Vizcarra
16%

César Acuña
16%

José Luna
16%

Carlos Álvarez
16%

Alfonso López Chau
16%

Enrique Valderrama
16%

Ricardo Belmont
16%

Mesías Guevara
16%

Fiorella Molinelli
15%

Wolfgang Grozo
12%

Vladimir Cerrón
12%

Carlos Espá
12%

Keiko Fujimori
12%

George Forsyth
6%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Rafael López Aliaga as the clear frontrunner to lead Peru's 2026 presidential election first round, with 55% implied probability, driven by his lead in recent Ipsos and Datum polls (around 12-15% support) amid voter frustration over crime, corruption, and economic stagnation boosting right-wing populists. Jorge Nieto (18.5%) and Roberto Sánchez Palomino (17.5%) follow as military-affiliated conservatives gaining traction in security-focused surveys, while the field remains fragmented with no strong leftist or centrist contender emerging. Recent developments include López Aliaga's rising approval as Lima mayor and candidate filings opening, heightening speculation ahead of primaries and official registration deadlines in early 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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