United Russia's 95% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its unchallenged dominance as the ruling party, reinforced by President Putin's March presidential landslide and systemic control over media, electoral processes, and opposition suppression. Key rivals like the Communist Party trail far behind in polls, with no viable challengers emerging amid disqualifications of anti-war candidates and exiled dissidents. Recent Levada Center surveys show United Russia at 45-50% support, sufficient for plurality under Russia's mixed proportional and single-mandate system. Barring extraordinary disruptions—such as Putin's incapacitation, economic collapse from sanctions, or unprecedented protests—traders see minimal risk to this outcome ahead of the September 2026 vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЕдиная Россия (ЕР) 94.9%
Коммунистическая партия Российской Федерации (КПРФ) 1.7%
Новые люди (НЛ) <1%
Справедливая Россия – За правду (СРЗП) <1%
$857,259 Объем
$857,259 Объем
Sep 30, 2026
Единая Россия (ЕР)
95%
Коммунистическая партия Российской Федерации (КПРФ)
2%
Новые люди (НЛ)
1%
Справедливая Россия – За правду (СРЗП)
1%
Гражданская платформа (ГП)
1%
Либерально-демократическая партия России (ЛДПР)
1%
Родина
<1%
Единая Россия (ЕР) 94.9%
Коммунистическая партия Российской Федерации (КПРФ) 1.7%
Новые люди (НЛ) <1%
Справедливая Россия – За правду (СРЗП) <1%
$857,259 Объем
$857,259 Объем
Sep 30, 2026
Единая Россия (ЕР)
$469,607 Объем
95%
Коммунистическая партия Российской Федерации (КПРФ)
$53,151 Объем
2%
Новые люди (НЛ)
$34,430 Объем
1%
Справедливая Россия – За правду (СРЗП)
$118,015 Объем
1%
Гражданская платформа (ГП)
$75,782 Объем
1%
Либерально-демократическая партия России (ЛДПР)
$31,464 Объем
1%
Родина
$74,810 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 95% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its unchallenged dominance as the ruling party, reinforced by President Putin's March presidential landslide and systemic control over media, electoral processes, and opposition suppression. Key rivals like the Communist Party trail far behind in polls, with no viable challengers emerging amid disqualifications of anti-war candidates and exiled dissidents. Recent Levada Center surveys show United Russia at 45-50% support, sufficient for plurality under Russia's mixed proportional and single-mandate system. Barring extraordinary disruptions—such as Putin's incapacitation, economic collapse from sanctions, or unprecedented protests—traders see minimal risk to this outcome ahead of the September 2026 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Открытие рынка: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Объем
$857,259Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's 95% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its unchallenged dominance as the ruling party, reinforced by President Putin's March presidential landslide and systemic control over media, electoral processes, and opposition suppression. Key rivals like the Communist Party trail far behind in polls, with no viable challengers emerging amid disqualifications of anti-war candidates and exiled dissidents. Recent Levada Center surveys show United Russia at 45-50% support, sufficient for plurality under Russia's mixed proportional and single-mandate system. Barring extraordinary disruptions—such as Putin's incapacitation, economic collapse from sanctions, or unprecedented protests—traders see minimal risk to this outcome ahead of the September 2026 vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Объем
$857,259Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's 95% implied probability as the State Duma election winner stems from its unchallenged dominance as the ruling party, reinforced by President Putin's March presidential landslide and systemic control over media, electoral processes, and opposition suppression. Key rivals like the Communist Party trail far behind in polls, with no viable challengers emerging amid disqualifications of anti-war candidates and exiled dissidents. Recent Levada Center surveys show United Russia at 45-50% support, sufficient for plurality under Russia's mixed proportional and single-mandate system. Barring extraordinary disruptions—such as Putin's incapacitation, economic collapse from sanctions, or unprecedented protests—traders see minimal risk to this outcome ahead of the September 2026 vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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