Trader consensus slightly favors Carlos Espá for second place in Peru's 2026 presidential election first round, with 34% implied probability versus 30.5% for a crowded pack including Rafael López Aliaga, Keiko Fujimori, and José Luna. Recent polls from Ipsos and Datum reflect a fragmented field, where anti-incumbent backlash against President Dina Boluarte's administration boosts right-wing and centrist outsiders but splits support evenly among them. Low name recognition and undecided voters (over 40% in surveys) keep odds bunched, amplified by minimal campaign momentum ahead of formal starts. Separation could emerge from October regional elections, candidate endorsements, or gaffes in early debates, potentially consolidating anti-left votes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоCarlos Espá 66%
Keiko Fujimori 36%
Mario Vizcarra 35%
Enrique Valderrama 35%

Carlos Espá
66%

Keiko Fujimori
36%

Mario Vizcarra
35%

Enrique Valderrama
35%

Rafael López Aliaga
35%

George Forsyth
35%

Fernando Olivera
35%

Yonhy Lescano
35%

Wolfgang Grozo
35%

José Luna
35%

Mesías Guevara
35%

Fiorella Molinelli
35%

Carlos Álvarez
35%

Marisol Pérez Tello
35%

Alfonso López Chau
34%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
34%

César Acuña
34%

José Williams
34%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
34%

Vladimir Cerrón
34%

Ricardo Belmont
34%

Roberto Chiabra
34%

Jorge Nieto
33%
Carlos Espá 66%
Keiko Fujimori 36%
Mario Vizcarra 35%
Enrique Valderrama 35%

Carlos Espá
66%

Keiko Fujimori
36%

Mario Vizcarra
35%

Enrique Valderrama
35%

Rafael López Aliaga
35%

George Forsyth
35%

Fernando Olivera
35%

Yonhy Lescano
35%

Wolfgang Grozo
35%

José Luna
35%

Mesías Guevara
35%

Fiorella Molinelli
35%

Carlos Álvarez
35%

Marisol Pérez Tello
35%

Alfonso López Chau
34%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
34%

César Acuña
34%

José Williams
34%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
34%

Vladimir Cerrón
34%

Ricardo Belmont
34%

Roberto Chiabra
34%

Jorge Nieto
33%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus slightly favors Carlos Espá for second place in Peru's 2026 presidential election first round, with 34% implied probability versus 30.5% for a crowded pack including Rafael López Aliaga, Keiko Fujimori, and José Luna. Recent polls from Ipsos and Datum reflect a fragmented field, where anti-incumbent backlash against President Dina Boluarte's administration boosts right-wing and centrist outsiders but splits support evenly among them. Low name recognition and undecided voters (over 40% in surveys) keep odds bunched, amplified by minimal campaign momentum ahead of formal starts. Separation could emerge from October regional elections, candidate endorsements, or gaffes in early debates, potentially consolidating anti-left votes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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