Ahead of the May 17 Andalusian regional election for the 109-seat Parliament, where an absolute majority requires 55 seats, trader consensus tilts slightly against the Partido Popular (PP) achieving it, reflecting polls projecting 54-56 seats for incumbent president Juanma Moreno's party. Strong PP vote share around 43% stems from Moreno's popular governance since 2022's absolute majority win, compounded by PSOE's historic lows near 22%, but Vox's consistent 14% erodes PP seats under proportional representation and d'Hondt allocation. Closest recent surveys like Data10 (May 10-11) give PP 56 seats while SocioMétrica (May 8-11) shows 54-55, creating razor-thin balance. Final turnout favoring centrists or late campaign shifts could tip toward yes; Vox mobilization or PP complacency might secure no.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 мая 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
17 мая 2026 г.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).Ahead of the May 17 Andalusian regional election for the 109-seat Parliament, where an absolute majority requires 55 seats, trader consensus tilts slightly against the Partido Popular (PP) achieving it, reflecting polls projecting 54-56 seats for incumbent president Juanma Moreno's party. Strong PP vote share around 43% stems from Moreno's popular governance since 2022's absolute majority win, compounded by PSOE's historic lows near 22%, but Vox's consistent 14% erodes PP seats under proportional representation and d'Hondt allocation. Closest recent surveys like Data10 (May 10-11) give PP 56 seats while SocioMétrica (May 8-11) shows 54-55, creating razor-thin balance. Final turnout favoring centrists or late campaign shifts could tip toward yes; Vox mobilization or PP complacency might secure no.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Открытие рынка: Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Объем
$3,766Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).Ahead of the May 17 Andalusian regional election for the 109-seat Parliament, where an absolute majority requires 55 seats, trader consensus tilts slightly against the Partido Popular (PP) achieving it, reflecting polls projecting 54-56 seats for incumbent president Juanma Moreno's party. Strong PP vote share around 43% stems from Moreno's popular governance since 2022's absolute majority win, compounded by PSOE's historic lows near 22%, but Vox's consistent 14% erodes PP seats under proportional representation and d'Hondt allocation. Closest recent surveys like Data10 (May 10-11) give PP 56 seats while SocioMétrica (May 8-11) shows 54-55, creating razor-thin balance. Final turnout favoring centrists or late campaign shifts could tip toward yes; Vox mobilization or PP complacency might secure no.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Объем
$3,766Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ahead of the May 17 Andalusian regional election for the 109-seat Parliament, where an absolute majority requires 55 seats, trader consensus tilts slightly against the Partido Popular (PP) achieving it, reflecting polls projecting 54-56 seats for incumbent president Juanma Moreno's party. Strong PP vote share around 43% stems from Moreno's popular governance since 2022's absolute majority win, compounded by PSOE's historic lows near 22%, but Vox's consistent 14% erodes PP seats under proportional representation and d'Hondt allocation. Closest recent surveys like Data10 (May 10-11) give PP 56 seats while SocioMétrica (May 8-11) shows 54-55, creating razor-thin balance. Final turnout favoring centrists or late campaign shifts could tip toward yes; Vox mobilization or PP complacency might secure no.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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