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Выборы·Испания

Выборы в Андалусии: абсолютное большинство ПП?

icon for Выборы в Андалусии: абсолютное большинство ПП?
Выборы·Испания

Выборы в Андалусии: абсолютное большинство ПП?

Да

60% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Да

60% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).Recent polls ahead of the May 17 Andalusian regional election place the Popular Party (PP), led by incumbent president Juanma Moreno, on the verge of an absolute majority in the 109-seat Parliament, needing 55 seats. Surveys from Sigma Dos, GAD3, SocioMétrica, and El Periódico over the past week project PP support at 42-44%, translating to 52-55 seats, while PSOE hits historic lows at 20-24% (24-27 seats) amid internal turmoil, and Vox rises to 14-16% (17-20 seats), potentially denying PP a solo win. This trader consensus of 59% for a PP absolute majority reflects polling momentum favoring Moreno's consolidation, tempered by undecided voters in key provinces like Córdoba and Granada, with final turnout as a pivotal factor.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Объем
$2,659
Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).Recent polls ahead of the May 17 Andalusian regional election place the Popular Party (PP), led by incumbent president Juanma Moreno, on the verge of an absolute majority in the 109-seat Parliament, needing 55 seats. Surveys from Sigma Dos, GAD3, SocioMétrica, and El Periódico over the past week project PP support at 42-44%, translating to 52-55 seats, while PSOE hits historic lows at 20-24% (24-27 seats) amid internal turmoil, and Vox rises to 14-16% (17-20 seats), potentially denying PP a solo win. This trader consensus of 59% for a PP absolute majority reflects polling momentum favoring Moreno's consolidation, tempered by undecided voters in key provinces like Córdoba and Granada, with final turnout as a pivotal factor.

Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Объем
$2,659
Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 7:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Partido Popular (PP) wins at least 55 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).

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Текущий фаворит для «Выборы в Андалусии: абсолютное большинство ПП?» — «Выборы в Андалусии: Абсолютное большинство у Народной партии?» с 60%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 60%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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