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Политика·палата представителей

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Политика·палата представителей

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Carin Elam 37.7%

Melissa Hernandez 33.0%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 3.8%

Wendy Huang <1%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Carin Elam 37.7%

Melissa Hernandez 33.0%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 3.8%

Wendy Huang <1%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Aisha Wahab

$429 Объем

63%

Melissa Hernandez

$212 Объем

33%

Wendy Huang

$165 Объем

<1%

Carin Elam

$210 Объем

38%

Matt Ortega

$183 Объем

43%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$308 Объем

42%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$152 Объем

4%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.State Sen. Aisha Wahab commands trader consensus at 88.5% to win California's 14th Congressional District special election, driven by her commanding endorsements from the California Democratic Party, labor unions—including a $59,000 ad buy on May 14—and the Mercury News, which praised her legislative record on mental health, insulin costs, housing aid, and transit in the East Bay district she partly represents. In this Democratic stronghold where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 3-to-1, the fragmented field leaves challengers like self-funded attorney Rakhi Israni Singh (6.7%) and BART board member Melissa Hernandez trailing far behind ahead of the June 16 top-two nonpartisan primary, with traders betting on Wahab clearing 50% for an outright victory or dominating the August 18 runoff.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Объем
$1,658
Дата окончания
18 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.State Sen. Aisha Wahab commands trader consensus at 88.5% to win California's 14th Congressional District special election, driven by her commanding endorsements from the California Democratic Party, labor unions—including a $59,000 ad buy on May 14—and the Mercury News, which praised her legislative record on mental health, insulin costs, housing aid, and transit in the East Bay district she partly represents. In this Democratic stronghold where Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 3-to-1, the fragmented field leaves challengers like self-funded attorney Rakhi Israni Singh (6.7%) and BART board member Melissa Hernandez trailing far behind ahead of the June 16 top-two nonpartisan primary, with traders betting on Wahab clearing 50% for an outright victory or dominating the August 18 runoff.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Объем
$1,658
Дата окончания
18 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«CA-14 Special Election Winner?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 7 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Aisha Wahab» с 63%, за ним следует «Matt Ortega» с 43%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 63¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 63%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«CA-14 Special Election Winner?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Apr 16, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «CA-14 Special Election Winner?», просмотри 7 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «CA-14 Special Election Winner?» — «Aisha Wahab» с 63%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 63%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Matt Ortega» с 43%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «CA-14 Special Election Winner?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.