Trader consensus around 120-130 million House ballots in the 2026 midterms reflects uncertainty over base turnout amid a Republican-controlled Congress and President Trump’s sub-50 percent approval ratings. Historical midterm patterns show the opposition party often benefits from higher mobilization, reinforced by recent special-election results where Democrats have outperformed 2024 baselines through stronger enthusiasm gaps. Generic ballot polling favoring Democrats by roughly six points, combined with ongoing redistricting and youth registration momentum, supports elevated participation expectations, while economic conditions and voting-access rules introduce downside risks. No single catalyst in recent weeks has shifted the distribution, leaving adjacent buckets tightly priced as traders weigh these competing mobilization dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено130 млн+ 44%
<85 млн 19.2%
115-120 млн 15%
125–130 млн 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
<85 млн
19%
85-90 млн
<1%
90–95 млн
1%
95-100 млн
1%
100–105 млн
4%
105-110 млн
6%
110–115 млн
13%
115-120 млн
15%
120-125 млн
26%
125–130 млн
20%
130 млн+
30%
130 млн+ 44%
<85 млн 19.2%
115-120 млн 15%
125–130 млн 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
<85 млн
$391 Объем
19%
85-90 млн
$419 Объем
<1%
90–95 млн
$1,552 Объем
1%
95-100 млн
$269 Объем
1%
100–105 млн
$809 Объем
4%
105-110 млн
$436 Объем
6%
110–115 млн
$549 Объем
13%
115-120 млн
$1,081 Объем
15%
120-125 млн
$408 Объем
26%
125–130 млн
$1,204 Объем
20%
130 млн+
$318 Объем
30%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus around 120-130 million House ballots in the 2026 midterms reflects uncertainty over base turnout amid a Republican-controlled Congress and President Trump’s sub-50 percent approval ratings. Historical midterm patterns show the opposition party often benefits from higher mobilization, reinforced by recent special-election results where Democrats have outperformed 2024 baselines through stronger enthusiasm gaps. Generic ballot polling favoring Democrats by roughly six points, combined with ongoing redistricting and youth registration momentum, supports elevated participation expectations, while economic conditions and voting-access rules introduce downside risks. No single catalyst in recent weeks has shifted the distribution, leaving adjacent buckets tightly priced as traders weigh these competing mobilization dynamics.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Объем
$7,435Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Trader consensus around 120-130 million House ballots in the 2026 midterms reflects uncertainty over base turnout amid a Republican-controlled Congress and President Trump’s sub-50 percent approval ratings. Historical midterm patterns show the opposition party often benefits from higher mobilization, reinforced by recent special-election results where Democrats have outperformed 2024 baselines through stronger enthusiasm gaps. Generic ballot polling favoring Democrats by roughly six points, combined with ongoing redistricting and youth registration momentum, supports elevated participation expectations, while economic conditions and voting-access rules introduce downside risks. No single catalyst in recent weeks has shifted the distribution, leaving adjacent buckets tightly priced as traders weigh these competing mobilization dynamics.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Объем
$7,435Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 120-130 million House ballots in the 2026 midterms reflects uncertainty over base turnout amid a Republican-controlled Congress and President Trump’s sub-50 percent approval ratings. Historical midterm patterns show the opposition party often benefits from higher mobilization, reinforced by recent special-election results where Democrats have outperformed 2024 baselines through stronger enthusiasm gaps. Generic ballot polling favoring Democrats by roughly six points, combined with ongoing redistricting and youth registration momentum, supports elevated participation expectations, while economic conditions and voting-access rules introduce downside risks. No single catalyst in recent weeks has shifted the distribution, leaving adjacent buckets tightly priced as traders weigh these competing mobilization dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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