Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Partido Popular (PP) at 99.5% to win the Andalusian regional election on May 17, driven by final pre-election polls projecting an absolute majority of 54-58 seats in the 109-seat Parliament of Andalusia for incumbent president Juanma Moreno. Recent surveys from early May, including Celeste-Tel, Sigma Dos, and 40dB, consistently show PP at 42-44% of the vote—roughly double PSOE-A's 21-24%—with VOX at 13-15%, amid stable trends over the past 30 days and no momentum shifts for challengers. Under proportional representation, this lead secures the most seats without coalition needs. While low-probability scenarios like a dramatic late voter turnout surge among opposition bases or unforeseen scandals could challenge it, historical polling accuracy in Andalusian contests reinforces trader confidence in PP dominance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPP 99.4%
PSOE-A <1%
VOX <1%
PA <1%
$100,119 Объем
$100,119 Объем
17 мая 2026 г.
PP
99%
PSOE-A
<1%
VOX
<1%
PA
<1%
AA
<1%
PP 99.4%
PSOE-A <1%
VOX <1%
PA <1%
$100,119 Объем
$100,119 Объем
17 мая 2026 г.
PP
$29,398 Объем
99%
PSOE-A
$35,985 Объем
<1%
VOX
$25,191 Объем
<1%
PA
$5,119 Объем
<1%
AA
$4,426 Объем
<1%
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Partido Popular (PP) at 99.5% to win the Andalusian regional election on May 17, driven by final pre-election polls projecting an absolute majority of 54-58 seats in the 109-seat Parliament of Andalusia for incumbent president Juanma Moreno. Recent surveys from early May, including Celeste-Tel, Sigma Dos, and 40dB, consistently show PP at 42-44% of the vote—roughly double PSOE-A's 21-24%—with VOX at 13-15%, amid stable trends over the past 30 days and no momentum shifts for challengers. Under proportional representation, this lead secures the most seats without coalition needs. While low-probability scenarios like a dramatic late voter turnout surge among opposition bases or unforeseen scandals could challenge it, historical polling accuracy in Andalusian contests reinforces trader confidence in PP dominance.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Открытие рынка: Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Объем
$100,119Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Partido Popular (PP) at 99.5% to win the Andalusian regional election on May 17, driven by final pre-election polls projecting an absolute majority of 54-58 seats in the 109-seat Parliament of Andalusia for incumbent president Juanma Moreno. Recent surveys from early May, including Celeste-Tel, Sigma Dos, and 40dB, consistently show PP at 42-44% of the vote—roughly double PSOE-A's 21-24%—with VOX at 13-15%, amid stable trends over the past 30 days and no momentum shifts for challengers. Under proportional representation, this lead secures the most seats without coalition needs. While low-probability scenarios like a dramatic late voter turnout surge among opposition bases or unforeseen scandals could challenge it, historical polling accuracy in Andalusian contests reinforces trader confidence in PP dominance.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
Объем
$100,119Дата окончания
17 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the Partido Popular (PP) at 99.5% to win the Andalusian regional election on May 17, driven by final pre-election polls projecting an absolute majority of 54-58 seats in the 109-seat Parliament of Andalusia for incumbent president Juanma Moreno. Recent surveys from early May, including Celeste-Tel, Sigma Dos, and 40dB, consistently show PP at 42-44% of the vote—roughly double PSOE-A's 21-24%—with VOX at 13-15%, amid stable trends over the past 30 days and no momentum shifts for challengers. Under proportional representation, this lead secures the most seats without coalition needs. While low-probability scenarios like a dramatic late voter turnout surge among opposition bases or unforeseen scandals could challenge it, historical polling accuracy in Andalusian contests reinforces trader confidence in PP dominance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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